Another four-flush hand

[NYCNative]

7 Card Stud High ($1/$2), Ante $0.10, Bring-In $0.50 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.80 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 2: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___brings-in
Seat 3: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 4: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 5: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 6: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 7: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls

4th Street - (3.80 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 2: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 3: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___checks___calls
Hero: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets

5th Street - (4.40 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 2: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 3: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls

6th Street - (8.40 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 2: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 7: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls

River - (12.40 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] xx___folds
Seat 2: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] xx___folds
Seat 7: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] xx___bets
Hero: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls

Total pot: (14.40 BB)


Was betting on 4th street smart? Should I have folded on any street afterwards or did so many callers and a relative dearth of spades make for it being worth the gamble despite lacking many other outs and not drawing to a very high flush? Finally, do I raise the river instead of calling it?

[Petteri]

On 4th street betting is not bad. But with non-nut flush draw, tiny pot and 4 opponents I would also consider checking if opposition is passive.

5th street play is bad. You should have folded 5th street after seat 7 pairs his door card. It is bad idea to draw for Queen high flush against possible trips. Even though seat 7 has been passive. Seat 2 can also have better flush draw.

[NYCNative]

[ QUOTE ]
You should have folded 5th street after seat 7 pairs his door card. It is bad idea to draw for Queen high flush against possible trips.

[/ QUOTE ]I don't think he has Trip Kings because I can't see someone with two kings in that position and with the up cards around him not raising PF.

[Roland]

You played it just fine.
Not betting 4th street would be absolutely horrible.
5th street call is okay imo - like you said, it’s unlikely that seat 7 has trips. It’s not so great because seat 2 could have a better flush draw; he could also have a worse flush draw though (it’s about 50-50).

The river is interesting:
Note that both the 1 and 2 seats cards are very dead, so it’s extremely unlikely that one of them made a boat. Unfortunately, it is also extremely unlikely that seat 1 made a straight - 5s, 8s and 3s are all very dead; the only hand that makes sense for him is a 3-flush with either the 3c or the 5c (not tht he has to have a hand that makes sense - he could have just an under pair for all you know).
Seat 3 could have a wheel, but that’s also pretty unlikely.
On the other hand, the kings have shown a lot of strenght by betting. A diamond flush is a very real possibility; and kings full aren’t completely out of the picture either.


…. 2 hours of mind-numbing math later…

I suck at math and just completely owned myself trying to figure this out.

Some stuff I did figure out:

If we give seat 7 completely random hole cards, he has a diamond flush (which beats yours) about 13% of the time. I suspect that he has it quite a bit more often though, since a high percentage of players would check kings up in this spot.

Assuming seat 1 indeed started with a 3-flush, he will hit another club on the river about 36% of the time; 12% of the time he beats you with either the a high flush or the queen high-ten high flush.

And assuming seat 2 indeed started with a 3-flush, he will make his flush about 19% of the time; 10% of the time he beats your flush.

I don’t know what all this means, but I suspect it means you should just call (like you did), planning to call a raise by seat 1 or 2 and probably folding if the kings 3-bet.

I play it the same.

The bet on fourth should be absolutely automatic with any fully live flush draw here. You have way more than a 1 in 6 chance of winning this hand, so you want money in the pot, especially at 1/2 when folding is not a commonly used strategy.

I don't really consider folding fifth or sixth here - there's little reason to suspect trip kings. I think that going for overcalls on the river is better than raising here.

[mscags]

Anyone complete third with so many limpers in the pot?