When and When Not to Checkraise Bluff

[toss]

Tight Ass 5/10 Table Where Everyone Takes Turn Stealing the Blinds Hold'em Poker (7 Handed)

UTG raises (seems TAG so maybe ATs+, 88/99+, KJs+, KQo+), folded to me on the BB with red 77 and I call.

Flop comes AT2r. Villain bets, I checkraise because theres like some hands where he doesn't have an Ace. He insta-calls.

Turn is low card blank. I bet again and he insta raises. Fold.

So is this the kinda flop we want to be checkraising?

[brettbrettr]

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When and When Not to Find a New Table

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Flops with aces aren't really that good for your hand. I'd make this move with a king, sometimes. Rarely an ace, and lots of times on other boards.

[Jake (The Snake)]

I'd probably be checkraising lots of flops, but I don't think this is one of them. The ace is going to be enough to do you in by itself often, and when it isn't villain will have a ton of outs against you anyway because of the ten. Your equity is pretty low. Small pot. I c/f flop.

[toss]

I thought the Ace was a good card for me to bluff him off something like QQ, JJ, 99 or KQ, KJ. Sure he has a gutshot, but he won't really have the odds to call a turn bet. Then again people can't stand folding their premium pocket pairs. Meh.

I soon left the table which was 22% to the flop.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
Tight Ass 5/10 Table Where Everyone Takes Turn Stealing the Blinds Hold'em Poker (7 Handed)

UTG raises (seems TAG so maybe ATs+, 88/99+, KJs+, KQo+), folded to me on the BB with red 77 and I call.

Flop comes AT2r. Villain bets, I checkraise because theres like some hands where he doesn't have an Ace. He insta-calls.

Turn is low card blank. I bet again and he insta raises. Fold.

So is this the kinda flop we want to be checkraising?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd be inclined to c/f this flop with JJ let alone 77.

There are some good thoughts here though that do apply to your situation being OOP against a decent player.

However, that A on the board really, really hurts your chances with his range. You're less than 20% equity I'm sure.

[toss]

Good link. Makes it kinda sad that he doesn't post anymore. Looks like it had it backwards about that Ace helping out my bluff.

[QTip]

In between a troll being what he was, this post has a response in here where I stoved different flops for different equities based on ranges.

I think someone made a post within the last week where WD said something like "the appearance of the Ace is a way to get away from the hand cheaply instead of providing a bluffing opportunity". It was a different scenario, but I think it applies here.

[W. Deranged]

In fact, I would say that exactly the flops that you shouldn't be taking this line are those flops with an A in it.

Way too many hands in his range include an A. It'll be hard to fold a hand like KK anyway, so the "scare" value of the A in my opinion does not nearly outweigh the fact that the A is going to improve a huge portion of his range of hands.

[Shillx]

Hey Toss,

You remember all those HU hands we played about 6 months ago? Well a lot of them went like this...

You raise in the SBB and I call in the BB.

Flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] - Check/bet/raise.

I would only sometimes play an ace this way because it will have you drawing near dead too often to not slowplay. I would usually have a hand like 97 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or 74 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or 86s. There are so many hands in your range that I want you to fold (any 2 unpaired cards basically).

So the concept is good with your 77, but there are a few problems.

1) He isn't on a blind steal and is going to have an ace far more often than he would had he raised from the button. You have to show a lot more respect on a ATx board against an UTG raise then a steal raise.

2) Your hand doesn't have much going for it if he just calls. You usually want to have someone working for your hand just in case he decides to continue. I almost always had at least a gutshot to fall back on when I pulled something like this.

3) He is probably well versed in WA/WB and figures you to play Ax a bit slower. He might be more inclined to look you up here with an underpair and might (correctly) give hands like KQ more then just 4 outs (and at least see a river). It would suck to have to fire 2 more barrels at this pot to get him to fold here. Just give her up and wait for a better flop.

Brad

[Nick C]

I've wondered before, when someone tried to push me off of a big pair with a flop checkraise, how good or bad the play really was.

The particulars can vary, of course, but in this case (based on the range you gave), we have these hands that are definitely not folding:

AA = 3 combos
AK = 12 combos
AQ = 12 combos
AJ = 12 combos
ATs = 2 combos
TT = 3 combos

Okay, that's 44 combos. You're futiley investing at least 1 BB versus these hands with no chance of pushing Villain out. If Villain just calls your flop checkraise, you're going to be investing another BB in a losing cause (though you will occasionally get lucky and spike a set in the meantime).

These hands have a gutshot and will most likely see the turn:

KQ = 16 combos
KJs = 4 combos

So that's 20 combos you're most likely going to have to invest 2 BBs against. Against these hands, though, you'll often win 3 BBs for the effort.

These hands are going to be scared:

KK = 6 combos
QQ = 6 combos
JJ = 6 combos
99 = 6 combos
88 = 6 combos

That's 30 combos. A key question becomes how often Villain will release these. You'll win about 2 1/2 BBs for a 1 BB investment when he does.

When Villain actually has top pair or better, which is almost half of the time in this case, the play will be expensive. However, if Villain will release an underpair to the ace often enough, the play could become profitable.

If the rough estimate I just did in my head is correct, though, Villain will have to release 88-99 and JJ-KK to the flop checkraise about two out of three times that he holds those hands, in order for your play to be profitable.

I'm thinking you've got a decent shot at getting a fold out of the 88/99, but I doubt that very many Villains will release KK-JJ often enough to make this play profitable.