Help Sarge - Top Two - Ahead or Behind?

[Sarge85]

I made a mistake in thinking.

Here’s the long and short of the hand.

Pacific $2/$4 game – generally uber loose. On the flop and beyond it can become very LAG. People will “value” bet I guess with all sorts of strange holdings – capping with only top pair in multiway pots, on very very coordinated boards. Anyway –

I post my blind in the CO and happily get dealt KJo. Could be worse.

There is only one limper, so I decide to raise. (Reasonable hand, want the supreme position, want one or both blinds out)

Well like a great plan – Button comes along, SB folds, BB calls – as does the limper.

Flop comes a happy Kx Jx 6x rainbow/suits non factor.

BB checks, Limper Bets, I call, Button calls, BB calls. (Maybe I just should have raised here, but I wanted to get the button and BB to contribute more.) I’m planning on popping the turn. This is really a rookie mistake and the more I look at it, the more foolish I feel about not raising.

Turn comes a Tx

BB comes out firing, limper calls, I raise ---

Now. Here is where my thinking goes sideways. Obviously BB could have AQ and hit his equivalent of a gut shot. I also thought he could just have easily turned a smaller two pair. – KT- JT.

I convince myself that there are more ways for our opponent to have KT and JT – than AQ - so I popped it

However when I look back I see

KT – 6 Ways
JT – 6 Ways

AQ – 16 ways.

SO if I narrow hands down as such – if I would have know AQ had more possibilities than both KT and JT – I shouldn’t have raised.

Keep in mind I haven’t even accounted for the possibility that he has a set.

Does this seem like really weak tight thinking ?
What am I missing here?
Do you all have these automemorized?

Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

[Joe Tall]

Play the flop faster, why let them call correctly with a gutter, etc.

[aK13]

You are giving him credit for only calling in the BB with those hands preflop?

I think that fixes a lot of problems...

T6, AT, QT, T9, or random bluff/donk bet are all possibilites based on your read.

[27offsooot]

Wouldn't AQ be more apt to c/r? Anyway, I'm raising the turn and calling down a 3-bet. You really should have raised the flop though. They'll call with garbage.

[Sarge85]

[ QUOTE ]
Play the flop faster, why let them call correctly with a gutter, etc.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

This is really a rookie mistake and the more I look at it, the more foolish I feel about not raising.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know - I'm more curious about my Turn action, and river plan.

I did have a plan for the river.....curious how it stacked up.

Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

[Sarge85]

I left out the river action, which ties directly into my turn action, and more importantly thought process–

BB just called my turn bet.

On the river it was checked to me, and he CR’d.

Thoughts….(at this point my reads are still two pair with KT, or JT, and/or AQ.) I’m incorrectly assuming that there are more ways he can have KT and/or JT than AQ.

Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

[einbert]

Your read is way too narrow at this point.