I Know 2+2 Wants To Kill Me For This......

[StellarWind]

Here is an example that I made up a long time ago in a preflop EV thread.

You are playing heads up hold'em but the deal is rigged. One of you will flop TPTK. The other player will receive a standard gutshot. It is completely random as to who will receive what.

Scenario 1: Both players are perceptive and skillful and will play FTOP-correctly postflop. Whoever gets TPTK will bet and his opponent will compute pot odds and act accordingly. There are no implied odds because no one ever chases a made straight. There are no redraws to full houses.

Analyze the preflop play.

Scenario 2: Exactly like scenario 1 except that Villain has a bit of gamble. He will always peel one card to try and make his straight. Other than this he plays properly.

Analyze the preflop play.

I'll post again later after you've had some time to absorb this. This example has great significance when a good player is considering raising the field for value with some mediocre hand like QJs that has a small PokerStove edge over the marching nitwits. Specifically I am thinking of opponents who only play their cards and don't consider pot size or what hand the PFR is representing.