Raised on the river

[Tk79]

As I mentioned earlier I think I tend to call down and pay off late in the hand when I know Im beat. Im looking for places where I can cut this out and Im not sure this is one.


Button is 43/4/.59

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: (7.33 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+2 folds, Button calls.

Turn: (4.66 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

River: (6.66 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero ....

I tend to call down here every time saying "Im getting 9.5 to one on a call with an over pair". The only thing is is that I cant remember my hand ever being good here and saying "what the hell what that guy thinking". Thoughts??

Are you getting 9.5-1 or are you really getting 4-5 to 1 because to have to call the raise?

i think i'd be inclined to call his raise.
either he's calling with pocket tens or jacks and has either made his set or is trying to buy it on the river.
the call on the turn and the re-raise screams missed draw to me, so its either a loose initial call with suited connectors which eventually missed or 10-10

what happened btw?

Nik

I think you're beat. Button suddenly woke up on the river after all your aggression on the prior streets. He has something, and most likely it's not just a pair of nines.

[Tk79]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you getting 9.5-1 or are you really getting 4-5 to 1 because to have to call the raise?

[/ QUOTE ]
I already put the initial bet in on the river so its one back to me. So 9.66 to 1.

[Tk79]

I agree. I always think Im beat here. Do you lay this down for one bet though?

maybe laying it down is ok on this one hand cos it's close to certain you are beaten, but then you'll probably have that nasty nagging feeling for a while that maybe you were bluffed.
Also what if tricky players notice you folding here and try the same thing on you later on?

[Bill C]

It would be good for you to have some idea of the range of hands Button might call your p/f raise with. He sounds pretty loose from his stats.

Pot size is often the final arbiter of your actions in this situation, and in this case, even that is a little marginal.
I think his turn call and river raise looks a little smokey, and I would tend to call here, knowing he might show a set of 9s or maybe a str8.

At least if you call, you'll have a chance to see what he played at you, and you'll send out notice that he can't easily push you off a hand.

Just my $.02 worth...
bc

[WalkAmongUs]

I think its worth a call here. Make a note of what he's playing and how he's playing it. Looking at his stats, I'm guessing he flipped over Q10,J9 or a set he caught on the turn or river.

[Abbaddabba]

9's and J9s are the only reasonable hands.

if you start foldings hands at the river here though, you're going to have a lot of observant players taking stabs at pots and putting you in difficult situations later on; probably when your hand is a whole lot more marginal.

A bet on that river after being called the whole way looks like TPTK or better given the PFR, or a very marginal value bet with 10's at worst. Folding to a raise says that you're not taking what is (usually) an overpair to showodown for one bet.