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#31
11-15-2005, 03:52 PM
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Re: \"Soft Middle\"
[ QUOTE ]
If the middle isn't the best bet, it does allow for low-risk/high reward betting (though at a longshot), right? I'm just trying to understand WHY he made this bet since it certainly was a longshot to come through. [/ QUOTE ] You might not be sure which side is the better side even though one must be. The EV difference might be almost zero anyway. He made the bet simply because the bet was +EV; it's like calling the river with a weak hand in a sufficiently big pot. Usually you lose, but sometimes, woohoo. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] And there are enough woohoos to make up for the "of course I was beat"s. 
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#32
11-15-2005, 05:24 PM
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Re: \"Soft Middle\"
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If the middle isn't the best bet, it does allow for low-risk/high reward betting (though at a longshot), right? I'm just trying to understand WHY he made this bet since it certainly was a longshot to come through. [/ QUOTE ] You might not be sure which side is the better side even though one must be. The EV difference might be almost zero anyway. He made the bet simply because the bet was +EV; it's like calling the river with a weak hand in a sufficiently big pot. Usually you lose, but sometimes, woohoo. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] And there are enough woohoos to make up for the "of course I was beat"s. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah for the record this was no genius bet. I had no special insight that the game would hit 41. I simply knew I had a +EV wager on my hands and luckily it hit. Edit: On the other hand, my system did not generate an over or under play on the game...this is not special insight that the total would hit 41, of course, but I might've been less likely to try the middle had I liked one side strongly over the other.
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#33
11-15-2005, 08:00 PM
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Re: \"Soft Middle\"
played another soft middle tonight:
Cleveland -6.5 110/100 (Bowmans) Washington +7 103.45/106.55 (Matchbook) Risking 3.45 to win 100. I think 7 has a better than ~3.4% chance of hitting.
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#34
11-16-2005, 02:36 AM
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Re: \"Soft Middle\"
Well, it didn't hit, but your analysis was correct. I remember reading that 7 is the most common point differential in the NBA (something like 6.5% of games)
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#35
11-16-2005, 08:16 AM
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Re: \"Soft Middle\"
[ QUOTE ]
Well, it didn't hit, but your analysis was correct. I remember reading that 7 is the most common point differential in the NBA (something like 6.5% of games) [/ QUOTE ] I also played a 3.45 to win 100.00 on the Celts-Pistons game hitting 9. The Pistons actually blew right past that number during their 2nd half romp.
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