KQo Live at the Wynn <3

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold the turn. Based on my estimate you have 7 pure outs here, which means you need pots odds of approx 6-1 to call, you are getting 5.25-1 to call and you are not closing the action. Implied odds are not much of a factor since you only have 3 outs to the nuts. I would estimate your implied odds to be zero, since many of your outs will cost you a bet just as much as it makes you a bet, and what little implied odds you do have from your 3 nut outs is probably negated in the long run by the fact that you are not closing the action, which means it will sometimes cost you 2BB to see this river. Given that you called the turn, I would fold the river. I cannot say that folding this river is correct, Im just telling you what i would do. The UTG+2 guy did donk the turn on the 3 of hearts which means he mightve had a pair/flushdraw type hand(Ah4h) or just a naked flush draw. His turn action combined with his river raise is very consistent with a made flush, and the SB could have a flush also.

[/ QUOTE ]

You need about 5.5:1, so it's pretty damned close when you expect the other guy to call and not raise, which, from what I've seen of live poker, is gonna happen fairly often.

Anyway. Just MHO.

Rob