Calling raises early on with PP to hit sets?

[meditate89]

22$ game
Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: Dodgerdugout ( $863 )
Seat 2: CAL2003 ( $947 )
Seat 3: Super_loong ( $755 )
Seat 4: jmucardshark ( $800 )
Seat 5: gthockey6 ( $905 )
Seat 6: jasapistor ( $745 )
Seat 7: jpgumm ( $730 )
Seat 8: LongDrive317 ( $700 )
Seat 9: HERO ( $800 )
Seat 10: primerib ( $755 )
Trny:17531817 Level:1
Blinds(10/15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ 6h 6c ]
primerib folds.
Dodgerdugout folds.
CAL2003 calls [15].
Super_loong raises [65].
jmucardshark calls [65].
gthockey6 folds.
jasapistor calls [65].
jpgumm calls [65].
LongDrive317 calls [55].
HERO calls [50].
CAL2003 calls [50].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 3d, Qs, Qh ]
LongDrive317 checks.
HERO checks.
CAL2003 bets [15].
Super_loong calls [15].
jmucardshark calls [15].
jasapistor calls [15].
jpgumm raises [100].
LongDrive317 folds.
HERO folds.
CAL2003 calls [85].
Super_loong calls [85].
jmucardshark calls [85].
jasapistor folds.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 7s ]
CAL2003 is all-In [782]
Super_loong is all-In [590]
jmucardshark folds.
jpgumm folds.
** Dealing River ** [ Jc ]
CAL2003 shows [ Qc, Jd ] a full house, Queens full of jacks.
Super_loong shows [ Ks, Qd ] three of a kind, queens.
CAL2003 wins 192 chips from side pot #1 with a full house, Queens full of jacks.
CAL2003 wins 2050 chips from the main pot with a full house, Queens full of jacks.
Super_loong finished in tenth place.
Super_loong has left the table.

Maybe I'm just mad because I haven't been hitting many sets lately, but it seems like I frequently end up making a call like this for set value and then finding myself a little bit more shortstacked than usual... and If I make two calls like this and I'm card dead until level 4 I tend to be kind of desperate when it comes time to steal. People who get mixed up in raised pots with QJo tend to be hard to steal from too.

So should I not be calling here with 66? What if the hand after this hand someone raises to 65 and 3 people call before me... should I call? How many people do you need to be in to call a raise to say 65 or 75 for set value, assuming they will probably pay you off well if they hit top pair?

PS: Ironically I'm on the bubble right now(at level 3), and the QJ guy is on my right. I'm very scared to push into him (not that i need to at level 3)

With how few chips you start with on PP I wouldn't be calling a raise to 65 with pocket sixes, but I would call a raise to 30 or maybe even to 45 if I was late position or closing the action and a lot of people had called. I think 1/12th of your stack is just too much to pay on the chance that you hit a set, playing pocket pairs early is a good idea but you have to put a limit on the price.

[tewall]

You can use the rule of thumb of calling if the bet is 5% of your stack or less, fold if 10% or more, and use your judgment if in between. If you're closing out the action, you can take more risk. This would be pre-flop.

Once the flop hits, you only have about a 4% chance of hitting your card on the turn, so the stacks would have to be huge relative to the bet to play on. So if you follow the strategy of just trying to hit the flop and giving up if you don't, that will work fine, since your stack will never be large enough to call, unless the bet is absurdly small.

[eejit]

At this early stage with this many players calling the raise in front, and only one player to act behind, you're easily getting the odds to call. The main concern is the possible reriase by the open limper, but with this much money in the pot I'd call every time.

If you hit the flop you've got a great chance to make it to the money.

[The Yugoslavian]

Fold all of your low pps early in Party STT play - raise or not.

Yugoslav

[Irieguy]

Here's something everybody forgets about implied odds(for the sake of this exercise only, assume you both have 800 chips and you can stack the villain every time you make your set). Level 1 blinds.

1. Folded around to the SB, he completes. You check your pair:
implied odds: infinite

2. Folded around to you in the SB, you complete for 5, BB checks:
implied odds: 160 to 1

3. You limp your small pair, folded around to the BB who is the only caller:
implied odds: 53 to 1

4. Folded to LP who minraises, you call 30 from the button and the blinds fold:
implied odds: 27 to 1

5. You limp from MP, folded to button who raises to 60. All fold to you and you call for 45 more:
implied odds: 18 to 1

Forget about the exact numbers, just look at the order of difference between the examples.

You are getting around 9X the implied odds limping from the SB compared to calling a standard raise after limping... yet completing, limping, and calling a small raise with lil' pairs are often clumped together as subjects of discussion.

Calling a "small" raise is nowhere near the same as limping with pair when you are talking about implied odds. If you are prepared to call raises with your small pairs after limping, you would be correct to adjust your percieved implied odds accordingly.

This adjustment, combined with an adjustment to account for the fact that when you make your sets you will sometimes fail to stack someone and sometimes lose your whole stack yourself, makes the play of small pairs early in a SNG clear in my mind.

Irieguy

bump...excellent post Irie

[Freudian]

If you have seven players seeing a flop for a 3xBB raise, you should be more likely to double up if you hit your set than in a button minraises/you call-situation.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
If you have seven players seeing a flop for a 3xBB raise, you should be more likely to double up if you hit your set than in a button minraises/you call-situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

You will also be more likely to lose your stack to a bigger set or straight when you hit.

It's very difficult to calculate your implied odds equity with small pairs for this reason (and many others.)

The best evidence to help with this is to look at your PT data with regard to your small pairs. You are likely to find that you are either losing a little, or making a little with them in the first 3 levels with the former being much more likely when you get below 77.

That information, which is similar for several pros that I know, leads me to believe that the implied odds for these hands are quite poor once you account for all considerations.

This is an age-old argument: "play your pairs early, the implied odds are great" vs. "small pairs are garbage hands." Thanks to pokertracker and all of the experienced players on this forum, we have the benefit of knowing something about the play of these hands early: they are not making anyone very much money.

So, I fold them. If you want to limp some with them... that's fine. But if you are routinely calling raises with small pairs in levels 1-3, you are leaking chips. This isn't really a matter of opinion, just look at your own data or ask somebody with a bajillion hands played how much they are making with pocket 6's in level 1.

Irieguy

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you have seven players seeing a flop for a 3xBB raise, you should be more likely to double up if you hit your set than in a button minraises/you call-situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

You will also be more likely to lose your stack to a bigger set or straight when you hit.

It's very difficult to calculate your implied odds equity with small pairs for this reason (and many others.)

The best evidence to help with this is to look at your PT data with regard to your small pairs. You are likely to find that you are either losing a little, or making a little with them in the first 3 levels with the former being much more likely when you get below 77.

That information, which is similar for several pros that I know, leads me to believe that the implied odds for these hands are quite poor once you account for all considerations.

This is an age-old argument: "play your pairs early, the implied odds are great" vs. "small pairs are garbage hands." Thanks to pokertracker and all of the experienced players on this forum, we have the benefit of knowing something about the play of these hands early: they are not making anyone very much money.

So, I fold them. If you want to limp some with them... that's fine. But if you are routinely calling raises with small pairs in levels 1-3, you are leaking chips. This isn't really a matter of opinion, just look at your own data or ask somebody with a bajillion hands played how much they are making with pocket 6's in level 1.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that you shouldn't call raises with small pairs unless the situation is right. If I am on the button in level 1 and six players are in for 45 chips I will call every time.

If there are two players I will fold. But I agree that they probably will be losing hands if you routinely call raises with them.