Popped the cherry, might as well ask some dumb ones.

I have been viewing posts here for a while now. I absolutely love this forum. I have learned so much in such a short time. This forum has opened my eyes to things that may have taken 100 of hours to figure out on my own. Thanks.
I responded to a post or two today, one of my first really and got some feeback and flame so I figured why not just dive in and post a question.
I have only been recording my Sng's for about 4 months, and from what I have read here, you can not get a decent sample until you hit 500+. My question is:

Does Time play any important factor in this? If someone plays 500 Sng's in one week and the other plays 500 over 4 months, do you think that the person that took 4 months has more solid ROI because you could not attribute it to "being on a heater"?

Flame on!!

[playtitleist]

Time does not matter if you are measuring in number of games played. So I voted No.

However, time does matter when measuring in real time. That is because over those 4 months one is reading 2+2 and HOH and TOP and talking about poker and thinking about poker 16x longer than the guy who plays them all in a week.

So, basically, if you have a leak today, but don't plug it for a week, you will either have affected all 400 of your games or 400/16 of your games.

Make sense?

[The Yugoslavian]

You cannot calculate your true ROI.

Given a significant number of STTs your numbers take on some sort of meaning given certain confidence intervals and whatnot....

Temporally, there are too many factors IMO to have any sort of good 'rule of thumb' for how ROI is being impacted by outside factors.

Also, 'being on a heater' is not affected by when you play your games....what it means is that you've statistically been outperforming what your theoretical expected value *ought* to be. Many people who are bad players or good players whose games of gone to sh!t will say they have had a horrible run of cards....sometimes it's true and sometimes it's not. At least when someone says 'I'm on a heater' they are likely being accurate (b/c psychologically most people would rather take credit for their heater by thinking that they are just v good at poker rather than hitting a period of statistically, abnormally 'good' variance).

Anyway, I don't know how long you've been viewing the forum but your thinking is going to make looking at your stats problematic over time (as you will most likely be emotionally invested in what your stats are).

Yugoslav

[Roland32]

Time does not matter if you are measuring in number of games played. So I voted No.

However, time does matter when measuring in real time. That is because over those 4 months one is reading 2+2 and HOH and TOP and talking about poker and thinking about poker 16x longer than the guy who plays them all in a week.

So, basically, if you have a leak today, but don't plug it for a week, you will either have affected all 400 of your games or 400/16 of your games.

Make sense?


This is a perfect answer.

Yes, I can see how a leak in your game will cost you if you play more games over a shorter period of time.

BTW I know what HOH is but what is TOP? Theory of Poker..

[playtitleist]

Yup.

[ QUOTE ]
You cannot calculate your true ROI.

Given a significant number of STTs your numbers take on some sort of meaning given certain confidence intervals and whatnot....

Temporally, there are too many factors IMO to have any sort of good 'rule of thumb' for how ROI is being impacted by outside factors.

[/ QUOTE ]

So regardless of you past history, there is no true ROI for the future? And yes, your probably right about me being to vested in my results. I imagine that I should just focus on plugging leaks than results. Thanks for the help.

[Pokey]

ROI = (R)eturn (O)n (I)nvestment. Therefore, it is the ratio between payouts (return) and buyins (investment). A more interesting question is whether ROI is the proper measure of success/failure in a SNG framework. ROI is a way of measuring your expected payout per SNG; multiplying this by SNGs per hour gives a measure of the profitability of a particular type of game.

Illustrative example: according to the FAQ, a "good" ROI on 11s is 25%, but a "good" ROI on 109s is only 10%. Given that 25% > 10%, someone seeking to maximize ROIs would always play 11s instead of 109s. Someone seeking to maximize hourly return, however, would realize that 10% of $109 is $10.90, whereas 25% of $11 is only $2.75, so there is an incentive to move up in buyins despite the lower return on investment.

[The Yugoslavian]

hackmonkey,

Yeah, there is a 'true roi' but you won't ever really know it....even if you play 100,000 STTs they will be played over such a long period of time that the games are likely to have changed and all sorts of other stuff. 'True roi' is really just a theoretical measurement that we attempt to approximate with statistical tracking and such. Everyone over estimates their true roi anyway so, MEH.

[img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Yugoslav

500 SnG's in one week? That's 3 tableing 24/7