turn spot

[BradL]

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my guess is that betting is probably best since he won't give you credit for backdooring him esp with all the action you gave him on the flop and turn, so he'd think his AA or 99 or A9 or whatever would still be good and raise, where as checkraising may get him to think otherwise.

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Thats funny b/c before i saw your post I posted that i thought that checkraising was best, I think that enough people fast play pair/flushdraw combo's on the turn that when you lead into a 4bet on the river when the draw comes in you get the chance to 3bet less often than you would like. Maybe im way off though. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

-Brad

I think this is a rather straightfoward cap. See it like thisroughly) if X is the chance that you are currently ahead then 1-X is the chance that you are currently behind.

Then our equity at the turn is (let's ignore his outs against us for a while), lets say we have roughly 10 discounted outs. Then our equity is about: X + (1-X)*0,2 = 0,8*X + 0,2, i.e. if X <u>&gt;</u> 37,5% then we should 3-bet (roughly).

This criterion is easily met. I think it is strong enough that overturning principles (i.e. he might fold to a 3-bet but call a river bet or whatever) will not influence our decision.

[mike l.]

"if the villain is decent enough to understand this message,"

he's not. that's why he's 35/17/2. he sorta gets the game but not really. punish him and 3 bet.

[daryn]

so.. you have diamonds?

[flawless_victory]

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so.. you have diamonds?

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apparently...
wht he couldnt call his hand Ad7d in the OP is beyond me.

I 3 bet, call down if he caps. I checkraise if I fill up or flush on the river.

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"if the villain is decent enough to understand this message,"

he's not. that's why he's 35/17/2. he sorta gets the game but not really. punish him and 3 bet.

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BK's read on the villain is that he's "probably about right aggressiveness wise" Given this read, I would just call the turn.

[The Dude]

I think I'm 3betting either way, but I'd sure like to know a little more about the flush draw. Do you have diamonds or not? If not, which of the flop cards is a diamond? It matters. If the A is the diamond on the flop, then a river diamond scares me a hell of a lot less than if it were the 9 or 7.

[daryn]

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so.. you have diamonds?

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apparently...
wht he couldnt call his hand Ad7d in the OP is beyond me.

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well yeah, that was gonna be my next beef. i have no idea why everyone doesn't use that terminology. A7d would work better than Ad7d.. one less character!

[ggbman]

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"i think what this thread needs is some math to make us all feel good about our instinct that this is very close."

let me repeat what i said: he's not behind to many hands here. he's not behind to many hands that would play the flop that way. it's not very close at all.

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To me this hand is more about logic than math. When a decent player to a expert caps a A97r flop out of position, his minimum here IMO is AK, and most of the time he will have one pair beat. If the villain is aware of this, he will not be raising this turn with a hand like AK. So On the flop BK has basically flipped his cards face up and told this guy he can beat one pair, if the villain is decent enough to understand this message, then BK should not 3 bet the turn IMO.

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You should all ready Westley's post, it's spot on IMO. For those of you who don't understand, i'm gonna break it down Mike L/ style for you.

Villian bets flop: "I have 2 cards that i raise with preflop"

BK c/r's: "I have a piece of this flop or 10-8"

Villian 3 bets: "I probably have a big ace or better, but JJ-KK is possible so i can check behind and induce a ricer bluff"

BK Caps: "I almost always have 2 pair or better, but sometimes i am playing T8s like a nut because i only made $13 million last month"

Turn:

BK Bets "Ok, i'm not scared of your flop cap. You fold maybe 2% of the time. I am value betting your ass!"

Villian raises: "But i still have you anally raped! HAHAHA!!!"

So, call the turn raise. If the river is a 7, bet call. If the river is an Ace, bet/3 bet, and if the river is a diamond, bet/3 bet. If anyone disagrees with any part of my analysis, i want to know where.

Gabe