Flopped Set - When to slow down

Paxosmotic · #1 08-16-2005, 04:47 PM

I played this hand tonight and thought it would be interesting to see when you'd slow down with a flopped set. I have 949 hands on Villain at this level. He's 19.18/10.54/2.31. He's an attractive and thinking TAG who seems to be playing well below his bankroll and is consistently outplaying the table. Villain seems to have an advanced knowledge of poker theory and is very good at putting his opponents on a hand, as well as finding good opportunities to bluff. All in all, Villain might be the greatest 1/2 player in the history of... alright, it's me. I am the Villain in this hand. From Hero's perspective, when do you slow down here? Also, what does Villain have?

PokerStars Hold'em (9 handed)converter

Preflop:Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Hero raises, Villain 3-bets, 3 folds, CO calls, 3 folds, Hero caps, Villain calls, CO calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, Villain raises, CO calls, Hero 3-bets, Villain caps, CO calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (12.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, Villain raises, CO calls, Hero 3-bets, Villain caps, CO calls, Hero calls.

River: (24.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, Villain raises, CO folds, Hero 3-bets, Villain caps, Hero calls.

I bet/call the turn and check/call the river. <- My answer.

baronzeus · #2 08-16-2005, 04:50 PM

AK is as likely as AA here.

I bet call turn and check-raise river sometimes, and sometimes 3bet turn and check call if capped.

baronzeus · #3 08-16-2005, 05:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
AK is as likely as AA here.

I bet call turn and check-raise river sometimes, and sometimes 3bet turn and check call if capped.

[/ QUOTE ]

Make sure at least 5 bets go in on the turn and river, and possibly 6.

Paxosmotic · #4 08-16-2005, 05:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
AK is as likely as AA here.

I bet call turn and check-raise river sometimes, and sometimes 3bet turn and check call if capped.

[/ QUOTE ]

Make sure at least 5 bets go in on the turn and river, and possibly 6.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hero's turn bet : "I have a monster, whee!"
Villain's turn raise : "That's [censored] outstanding, I don't care."
Hero : "Oh. Uh. Hmm."

I just don't see Hero having more than about .47% equity after Villain's turn raise.

baronzeus · #5 08-16-2005, 05:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
AK is as likely as AA here.

I bet call turn and check-raise river sometimes, and sometimes 3bet turn and check call if capped.

[/ QUOTE ]

Make sure at least 5 bets go in on the turn and river, and possibly 6.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hero's turn bet : "I have a monster, whee!"
Villain's turn raise : "That's [censored] outstanding, I don't care."
Hero : "Oh. Uh. Hmm."

I just don't see Hero having more than about .47% equity after Villain's turn raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
AK is as likely as AA here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Paxosmotic · #6 08-16-2005, 05:26 PM

I think istewart's point about each bet making it less likely Villain has AK is spot on. What started as a 50/50 shot that he has AA or AK is swaying 5% every time Villain raises.

istewart · #7 08-16-2005, 05:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
AK is as likely as AA here.

I bet call turn and check-raise river sometimes, and sometimes 3bet turn and check call if capped.

[/ QUOTE ]

Make sure at least 5 bets go in on the turn and river, and possibly 6.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with this last part. If we put his range at AKs, AKo, and AA, with AKo/s becoming increasingly less likely as each bet goes in, we're exactly 50/50 to have the best hand on the river; not the 66% we need to be to check/raise. And since we're nearly positive he will raise if he bet, and bet/3-betting is spewing, putting one bet in seems like the best line.

baronzeus · #8 08-16-2005, 05:26 PM

I was only suggesting check-raising the river if you don't 3bet the turn. But 3bet and call a cap and check-call river is just as good.

Just make sure at least 5 bets go in on the turn and river.

istewart · #9 08-16-2005, 05:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I was only suggesting check-raising the river if you don't 3bet the turn. But 3bet and call a cap and check-call river is just as good.

Just make sure at least 5 bets go in on the turn and river.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, no problem then.

#10 08-16-2005, 05:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
AK is as likely as AA here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought the same thing, and I think it raises an interesting theory question. For the sake of argument, let's say the villain is as good as described, and these are the only 2 hands he can be holding. Let's consider the hand after the flop.

Obviously, if he has AA, you're dead and do not want to put any money into the pot. (As for drawing the case K, this is offset in the long run by the times the villain will draw the case A, filling your boat unfortunately for you.)

If he has AK, you will win the vast majority of the time. However, consider the villain's outs. He can draw one of two A's to fill up (offset one of these when you draw the case K for quads). Thus, the villain has 1 "effective out" to win this pot.

In essence, if the villain played this hand the same way everytime (willing to cap all streets) and had AA 50% and AK 50%, you would wind up losing money in the long run no matter what your consistent strategy (capping all the way or calling down), since you would lose to AA 50% and beat AK <50% with the villain sucking out every now and then with one of two A's.

If we truly put the villain on an indistinguishable AA or AK, the best play in the long run is to fold. Thoughts?

(With all that said, this is obviously never a fold in practice, since your average low-limit player will have a much larger range of hands than just AA or AK here.)