Theory of Poker: Chapters 5-7 Discussion

[BugsBunny]

1 - (38/47 * 37/46) = 0.3496762257

In plain English subtract the probability of not hitting the flush on either the turn or river from 1. You're left with the flush probability.

Odds are (1 - 0.3496762257)/0.3496762257 = 1.8597883598 to 1 against

The other way to do this is:
9/47 + (1 - 9/47) * 9/46 =
0.1914893617 + 0.8085106383 * 0.1956521739 =
0.1914893617 + 0.158186864 = 0.3496762257

In plain english, the probability of hitting on the turn (9/47) is added to the probability of hitting on the river (9/46) when you didn't hit the turn (1 - 9/47).

[Smokey98]

I think the best way to do this is by asking if people are struggling with a certain aspect of the chapters and then elaborating on those areas.

[theghost]

[ QUOTE ]
Qwiz: Does everyone know the quick way to figure your pot odds besides memorizing? Hint: Use the namesake of this forum.

[/ QUOTE ]

I use 13-(# of outs)=odds, so for 5 outs you need 8 bets in the pot to call (13-5=8).
It works to give rough odds when you have 5 through 9 outs (and you almost always have odds to call with 10 or more outs).
You need to remember the odds for 4 or less outs:
4- 10.5
3- 15
2- 22
(roughly)

Another trick I use to give me a rough figure on % chance to make your hand:

on the flop, with two cards to come, 4(# of outs)=%
on the turn, with one card to come, 2(# of outs)=%

Basically, 2% per out per card coming (so a 4 outer on the flop has a 16% chance to come in by the river: 4x4=16).

Admittedly, this is *very* rough - but sometimes usefull. The #'s come in a little low (conservative) because there are 47(46) cards left (where 50 would make 2% per out per card precise).

[sammy_g]

[ QUOTE ]
Qwiz: Does everyone know the quick way to figure your pot odds besides memorizing? Hint: Use the namesake of this forum.

[/ QUOTE ]
One trick I've heard is to multiply your outs by two then add two to get a percentage. For instance, if you have 8 outs, that's

8(2) + 2 = 18

So you have an ~18% chance of catching one of your outs on the next card.

Is this what you were referring to?

[New York Jet]

First time poster, long time reader.

I use two different methods.

Method 1. 2% x Cards to come x Outs (i.e. flush draw on the flop would be 2% * 2 cards to come * 9 outs = 36%)

Method 2. On the flop, use 4% x number of outs and on the turn, use 2.2 x number of outs.

New York Jet

[As Zehn]

When should you use effective odds v implied/reverse implied odds? This section is beginning to really confuse me. Apparently I know even less than I thought. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[SeppDeitrich]

another point is that the skill of your opponent's postflop play would have a larger effect on the value of your starting hands in this game. Compared to a game with a normal blind structure more money is going into the pot after the flop compared to the amount in the pot before the flop, so the advantage you gain from superior postflop play is magnified. So with regards to suited connectors, they may go down in value for games with tight/ good opponents, but go way up against loose/ bad opponents.

[Boylermaker]

[ QUOTE ]
When should you use effective odds v implied/reverse implied odds? This section is beginning to really confuse me. Apparently I know even less than I thought.

[/ QUOTE ]

The easy answer is that you should always consider them. But you probably already do, maybe without knowing it. When looking at stuff like effective odds, implied odds, reverse implied odds, etc., what you are in essence really doing is asking yourself questions like the folowing:

"If I call this bet, will this pot get raised and reraised behind me?"

"What does this paired and coordinated board do to my straight draw?"

"Will I get sufficient action of my hand if I make it?"

I try to not get too bogged down in the math when considering these factors, but by being aware of what is going on in the hand, and in the game in general, and by considering questions like this when thinking about what action to take, you can further increase your chances of making the correct decision. Like if the odds appear okay to call a bet, but you suspect there is a better than average chance that the pot will get raised/reraised behind you, you know that the odds might in fact not be sufficient to call, and you can correctly fold.

[Smokey98]

Can someone draw this out? Put it on a 3rd grade level for me. I'm just not getting that. So if you've 4 to the flush of spades then you need one of the remaining 9 spades to hit the flush. So that gives you a 9/47 or 9 that will hit and 38 that don't. I get that part. So would the odds of hitting it on the turn be 1/5.2? 47 divided by 9? So then how do you take that one step further to the river?

[Smokey98]

Can someone like Ed or David or Mason confirm if the methods that Sammy and New York Jet are using are good methods? No offense guys. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]