Why will online poker dry up?

[craig r]

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3. delusional people who think that they're actually good because they can "read people" and so on, and who blame all loses on bad luck and credit their "talent" with all wins.


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If he puts his whole paycheck online, wouldn't he qualify as the gambling addict?

craig

I think this is huge. My friend lost his entire summer eanrings online because "he keeps getting so unlucky". He still puts every paycheck onto a site and will start winning "once his luck turns around".

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[theben]

just look how much the games have screwed down in the small to mid limits over the last 1 year. poker has already peaked and now players are less stupid (although they still are retarded)

[Synergistic Explosions]

It hasn't peaked, it's just mellowed.

Once it gets a new buzz, new highs to come.

[BruinEric]

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If I am winning, and the poker sites are winning (with the rake), I am just wondering who is doing all of the losing?

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FWIW, temper your calculations with the fact that some of that rake re-enters the "poker economy."
-Sites pay affiliates who often give rake back.
-Sites pay generous bonuses that often are above a player's rake share.
-Sites pay it out in freerolls.
-Sites pay it out in guaranteed tourneys which create an overlay over the buyin.

Some of the above favors stronger, more organized players, such as those who seek out tourney with good overlays and those who take advantage of rakeback.

However, the freerolls and above-rake bonuses (such as Party network's 5x $100 signup bonus) often benefit the beginner or casual player.

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just look how much the games have screwed down in the small to mid limits over the last 1 year. poker has already peaked and now players are less stupid (although they still are retarded)


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[tworooks]

It won't, with all the teenagers who are into it, they'll keep the online rooms filled for a long time. Especially teens like me(which there are many of) who think they are good, and can't accept the fact that their not, and just attribute their losses to variance. Trust me, theres alot of us. Online poker isn't going down anytime soon.

[Guthrie]

For the same reason that Las Vegas dried up. Gambling sprung up all around the country and completely destroyed Las Vegas.

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It hasn't peaked, it's just mellowed.

Once it gets a new buzz, new highs to come.

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You are dead wrong games peaked in fishiness/avg.pot sizes roughly a year ago. Anyone that plays for a living knows this and sees this. Average pot sizes for the best games are all down and with fewer very good games-it has really become like work..much less fun. All games play tougher whether it is LHE,NLHE or PLO. The peak fishiness was late '03 to the end of spring '05. Full ring games are currently full of 7-8 rocks .Best oppurtunities lie in playing 6MAX NHE and 6MAX LHE where games are still full of action players. PLO dried up a year ago. NLHE full ring games are horrific in general at Party. I find many of the best games away from Party now.

I've made almost 200K in last 3 years and the games currently suck in general...just my 2 cents.

Sure there are still great games and tons of bad players..but now the games get filled in so fast with sharks that the fish are getting broke very vey quickly. When there were more fish the bad players could hang around a bit longer-Now they are getting anihilated with alarming speed. Thats why the shark-fish ratio will continue to only get worse...add in higher rakes and you had better be working on your game and game selection just to maintain good earn numbers..

Every ring game in general above $2-4 at Party now has 8 TAGS in it.
If you dont recognize this you are missing something. I would also postulate that many former pros in the last 3-6 months are starting to struggle. If you dont recognize that the enviroment is shifting you have blinders on. Imo games will only get worse.. Games have peaked already. Sure more players may play-Party will hit 100K players- but that doesnt matter.. it's the quality of the typical opponent that's important. The easy easy money has been made..now you gotta work for it and it isnt as fun.

The only thing I could think of that would allow the games to return to their peak fishiness is if China opened the flood games and allowed citizens to gamble online...that would be awesome..that could open things up for another couple years.

[Bremen]

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The only thing I could think of that would allow the games to return to their peak fishiness is if China opened the flood games and allowed citizens to gamble online...that would be awesome..that could open things up for another couple years.

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Um, I know some people in China are getting very rich, but wouldn't .5/1 still be high limits to the vast majority?

[Cactus Cactus]

People think that the reason why online poker is slowing down is because Party Poker is slowing down. People may be getting sick of party poker, but poker it still thriving... they are going to other sites, people are starting to learn about rake back.