Turn decision with bottom set against reraise from calling station

bfc · #1 08-03-2005, 08:25 AM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

UTG+1 ($55.35)
UTG+2 ($105.90)
MP1 ($184.70)
Hero ($98)
MP3 ($43.40)
CO ($24.84)
Button ($115.05)
SB ($29)
BB ($357.40)
UTG ($100)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls $1, 1 fold, UTG+2 raises to $2, 1 fold, Hero calls $2, MP3 calls $2, 2 folds, SB (poster) calls $1.50, BB calls $1, UTG calls $1.

Flop: ($12) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB bets $1, BB calls $1, UTG folds, UTG+2 calls $1, Hero calls $1, MP3 folds.

Turn: ($16) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets $1, BB calls $1, UTG+2 raises to $5, Hero raises to $20, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+2 raises to $55, Hero?.

I've only just sat down and the only read I have is PT stats which have villain as a calling station (vp$ip 50, AF-T 0.6, (-120)PTBB/100, 180 hands).

The preflop min raise could mean anything (I wouldn't rule out AA, KK, AK, AT, KT, JQ). I could be ahead of two pair, have 10 outs against a straight (other than QdJd), or 1 out against a bigger set. Other funky hands are also possible but I think straight or overset are more likely than hands that I'm beating.

If you call, what's your plan if river is a brick?

Comments on all streets appreciated. I might have reraised preflop if I was CO or button but didn't like the play from MP. I couldn't see a flop raise taking it down and had essentially given up on this pot.

jkkkk · #2 08-03-2005, 08:36 AM

Push.

gulebjorn · #3 08-03-2005, 08:40 AM

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Push.

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Obviously. PF call is standard. Flop is a judgement call. If you think you have implied odds, as turned out you did, call is fine.

djoyce003 · #4 08-03-2005, 10:15 AM

well he has the straight at least 90% of the time here....figure you are drawing at 10 outs, so it's 35 to win 90 straight and you figure you'll get value if you make your hand on the river....that makes this a call I think for the implied odds on any river that hits you....no way is he folding the straight so I think if you make your full house you are getting the rest of his stack

Godfather80 · #5 08-03-2005, 10:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
well he has the straight at least 90% of the time here....figure you are drawing at 10 outs, so it's 35 to win 90 straight and you figure you'll get value if you make your hand on the river....that makes this a call I think for the implied odds on any river that hits you....no way is he folding the straight so I think if you make your full house you are getting the rest of his stack

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Wow. "He has the straight AT LEAST 90% of the time here." I think there are number of two pair hands that are also likely. KT and AT would probably play similarly.

djoyce003 · #6 08-03-2005, 10:50 AM

disagree...they would raise once, they would not raise a bet, get raised themselves and still reraise. two pair slows down on that board almost every single time, which is why I used 90%. There is a chance that he's a doofus but I don't think its that big of one on this particular board.

theben · #7 08-03-2005, 10:52 AM

id have folded the flop and saved me the trouble of this turn

bfc · #8 08-03-2005, 11:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]
well he has the straight at least 90% of the time here....figure you are drawing at 10 outs, so it's 35 to win 90 straight and you figure you'll get value if you make your hand on the river....that makes this a call I think for the implied odds on any river that hits you....no way is he folding the straight so I think if you make your full house you are getting the rest of his stack

[/ QUOTE ]

This was my read and this is what he had. I called the turn and the river brought a lovely 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] to fill me up. He pushed the river and called me a douchebag when I took the pot.

I was quite certain he had the straight and called for the implied odds planning to fold if the river didn't fill me up (I think if I wasn't willing to fold the river I should have pushed the turn).

It wasn't until reviewing the hand afterwards that it struck me that a donk could easily play AA or KK this way at this level but it wasn't the case.

I'm inclined to agree that it would have been wiser to fold on the flop. I was paying $1 to buy myself what would often be the 2nd best hand.

fuzzbox · #9 08-03-2005, 11:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
well he has the straight at least 90% of the time here....figure you are drawing at 10 outs, so it's 35 to win 90 straight and you figure you'll get value if you make your hand on the river....that makes this a call I think for the implied odds on any river that hits you....no way is he folding the straight so I think if you make your full house you are getting the rest of his stack

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow. "He has the straight AT LEAST 90% of the time here." I think there are number of two pair hands that are also likely. KT and AT would probably play similarly.

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Calling stations dont raise, then 4-bet with 2-pair on this board.