Noob question: worth the half point?

VarlosZ · #1 10-13-2005, 03:53 PM

This week, I can get Giants +3.5 -118, or +3 +101. I understand that that's a very important half point, but it seems like you're giving up an awful lot to get it.

How often would the Cowboys have to win by exactly three for the half point to be worth it? And about how often will they win by three? Thanks.

whipsaw · #2 10-13-2005, 04:10 PM

Link

playersare · #3 10-13-2005, 04:16 PM

a good market price for a half point on or off the 3 is around 20 cents. Pinnacle is offering you 19 cents to sell down to +3 but it's not necessarily worth it since you'll end up pushing ATS roughly 9-10 percent of the time on that number. since other books are openly offering +3 +100 (and even +105) as it is, Pinnacle is basically saying, take whichever, we don't care. I would say keep the +3.5 because you might just need it, and the books are all pretty much in consensus right now on that game anyway. if you like the giants then the need to shop around is minimal.

kyro · #4 10-13-2005, 04:17 PM

I did these calculations solely to make sure I know what I'm talking about. If I am way off here, please someone let me know where I went wrong. Thanks!

Bet $100.

At 3.5, you're betting $100 to win $84.75.
At 3, you're betting $100 to win $101.

If you bet the -118 line, your EV where x = prob. cowboys win by exactly 3, y = prob. cowboys win by more than 3 and z = prob. cowboys win by less than 3 (or lose outright) is

(y)(-100) + (x+z)(84.75) = 84.75x - 100y + 84.75z

With the +101 line, it is:

(x)(0) + (y)(-100) + (z)(101) = -100y + 101z

Set the lines equal to each other to see the break-even point and the answer is x = .192z

So the Cowboys would have to win by exactly 3 around 1/5 as often as they win by less than 3 (once again, or lose outright).

sublime · #5 10-13-2005, 04:36 PM

The true value of the 1/2 pt on/off the 3 is about 22 cents. in this case the 3.5 is worth more. not to mention the pysch benefits [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]