Deepstacked decision, call or fold to this all-in?

[CieloAzor]

Early on, blinds are low and we started with 10k stacks. I picked up red kings on one of the first few hands and this is what followed...

Hand Number: 248 096 438
Table Number: 3 264 952
Event Name: $500 GTD LATE NIGHT FIFTY (#2234556)MNHB
Event Started: Friday November 25th 10:00:01 PM CST 2005
Event Type: BugsysClub Real Money Tournament
Event Buy-In: $50+$5 ($400 total prize pool)
Game: No Limit Hold 'em
Level II: 25/50 Blinds (25 Minimum Chip)
Starting Chips: 10 000
Starting Players: 8
Seat 1 : badgery starts with 10 000
Seat 2 : Hitman44 starts with 9 700
Seat 3 : Pu-238 starts with 10 275
Seat 4 : Wolik starts with 9 850
Seat 5 : CieloAzor starts with 10 000
Seat 6 : steve13 starts with 10 000
Seat 7 : mojorisn75 starts with 10 000
Seat 8 : anovot starts with 10 175
Seat 3 : Pu-238 has the dealer button
>>>DEALING HOLE CARDS<<<
CieloAzor dealt down [Kh Kd ]
Wolik posts the small blind 25
CieloAzor posts the big blind 50
steve13 calls 50
FOLD mojorisn75
FOLD anovot
badgery calls 50
FOLD Hitman44
FOLD Pu-238
Wolik calls 25
CieloAzor raises 425 to 475
steve13 calls 425
badgery calls 425
FOLD Wolik
>>>DEALING FLOP<<< [ Jh 2h 5h ]
CieloAzor bets 1,225
FOLD steve13
badgery raises 8,300 to 9,525 and is all-in
CieloAzor ?

Obviously there's no getting away from this hand on most sites, but with stacks this deep, is it still an easy call? What hands is villain likely to have? How long would you think upon this decision?

[zeitgeist]

Definitely a tough decision.

My initial thinking is that villain is on either (a) a small made flush that he wants to protect, or (b) the lone A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (possibly with a Jack) and that he's making a huge semi-bluff.

Less likely possibilities are (c) flopping the nut flush - clearly a big bet like this is -EV in the long term but I still see people doing it in the hopes that their opponents will think it shows weakness and will call (i.e. "fastplay is the new slowplay"), and of course (d) a stone bluff.

Let's say these last two cancel each other out, so you're probably looking at either (a) or (b), and maybe both are equally likely.

Anyway, if villain has a made non-nut flush, you've got seven outs twice (not nine, of course, as he has two of them), plus another out for a runner-runner full house. So you're something like 30% to win.

If villain just has the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], you're obviously a favourite, but not by much (55% against A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], for instance). And if villain has A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] plus any J, 2, 3, 4 or 5, you become either a pure coinflip or a slight underdog.

So maybe half the time you're 50% likely to win, the other half only 30%. So if we average these out, you're a 40% underdog, or about 1.5:1.

Since you're looking at calling 8300 into a pot of 12,225, your pot odds are just under 1.5:1.

So adding all that up I would use up my time bank, fold, and be in a sour mood for the rest of the tournament.

Curious to know what you did and how it turned out.

This screams top pair with Ah. I made this same play the other day on a all club flop, I had top two pair. Turns the guy I pushed against had flopped a low flush, he had 10c 8c, he doubled up and I kicked myself, but I thought he had something like AxKc and was protecting his draw, oops, bad read on my part. I probably would have called your hand too.

[locutus2002]

Hero folds.

Looks like a set. A small flush is also possible although Wolik folded.

In the best case scenario its a poorly played AhJx, and you're slightly ahead.