Two Plus Two Older Archives Probability of one OR more person getting dealt hands XX-YY
 FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

#1
07-15-2005, 04:37 PM
 vqchuang Junior Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 5
Probability of one OR more person getting dealt hands XX-YY

Hi I am working on a chart and I was wondering how to calculate the following question.

If I have JJ there are 19 out of 1225 hands that call my all in if they could see my cards. Therefore, headsup, there is a 19/1225 chance that someone calls me.

If there are 2 people behind me, what are the odds that one OR both people have one of those 19 hands? Remember, while there are 6 possible combinations of AA, if one person has AA, the other person can only get Aces of a different suit.

Could someone give me a general equation for:
X=number of hands that call me (it would be soemthing out of 1225)
Y = number of players still to act behind me
Z = probability of someone (one or more) getting a hand that calls me.

-vqchuang
#2
07-15-2005, 11:15 PM
 cyberer Junior Member Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 4
Re: Probability of one OR more person getting dealt hands XX-YY

this doesn't work because you're assuming that people will only call you with those hands. I know many players who would call an all in with pocket 8's or jack-10 suited. People don't know what your cards are and heads up will be more likely to call you with worse hands. You can't assume that people are only going to call with hands that can beat you preflop.
#3
07-15-2005, 11:39 PM
 oneeye13 Member Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 54
Re: Probability of one OR more person getting dealt hands XX-YY

"if they could see my cards"
#4
07-16-2005, 10:02 AM
 irchans Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 157
Re: Probability of one OR more person getting dealt hands XX-YY

vqchuang,

The correct answer is somewhat complicated but here is an approximation:

if

X=number of hands that call me (it would be something out of 1225)
Y=number of players still to act behind me
Z=probability of someone (one or more) getting a hand that calls me.

Z ~= (1- (1- X/1225)^Y).
#5
07-16-2005, 08:53 PM
 BettyBoopAA Member Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 35
Re: Probability of one OR more person getting dealt hands XX-YY

with the blinds and antes, it is correct to call with AK and AQ even though it's behind JJ.

 Thread Tools Display Modes Linear Mode

 Posting Rules You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is Off Forum Rules
 Forum Jump User Control Panel Private Messages Subscriptions Who's Online Search Forums Forums Home Two Plus Two     Two Plus Two Internet Magazine     About the Forums     MOD DISCUSSION     ISOP General Poker Discussion     Texas Hold'em     Beginners Questions     Books and Publications     Televised Poker     News, Views, and Gossip     Brick and Mortar     Home Poker     Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance     Poker Theory Limit Texas Hold'em     Mid- and High-Stakes Hold'em     Medium Stakes Hold'em     Small Stakes Hold'em     Micro-Limits     Mid-High Stakes Shorthanded     Small Stakes Shorthanded PL/NL Texas Hold'em     Mid-, High-Stakes Pot- and No-Limit Hold'em     Medium-Stakes Pot-, No-Limit Hold'em     Small Stakes Pot-, No-Limit Hold'em Tournament Poker     Multi-table Tournaments     One-table Tournaments Other Poker     Omaha/8     Omaha High     Stud     Other Poker Games General Gambling     Probability     Psychology     Sports Betting     Other Gambling Games     Rake Back     Computer Technical Help Internet Gambling     Internet Gambling     Internet Bonuses     Software 2+2 Communities     Other Other Topics Other Topics     Sporting Events     Politics     Science, Math, and Philosophy     The Stock Market

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:45 PM.