Rebuilding a Burned Bankroll

Mempho · #1 11-11-2005, 01:55 AM

I know the topic of bankroll has been covered a zillion times on here and I know the search function well, but please forgive me for bringing this up as this is a little bit different than what the normal bankroll post, as there is a specified objective that I need to hit by December 2006 with as little risk as possible.

First, history: I was a live game professional when the WPT just started airing...I played 10/20 in some very soft games and was making about 1k/week....somewhere around 1.5BB per hour.

I quit being a pure professional when I took a job about six months after graduating college (about August 2003). It offered security that I didn't have at the time (I had a 250BB bankroll and no backup for my monthly nut). I now know that variance can be either a great demon or a great savior. Still, 2004 saw my best year as a poker player (even though I was playing semi-pro). I built my bankroll up and was making just under 1.4 BB. It was a good year with a $5K+ January and only 2 minor losing months for the whole year (90% live play).

This year started off OK with a +1800 in the first part of January. Then, I had to take some time off from work until April (I'm an accountant) and so I ended up starting back in May (I dropped $1500 playing 2/5 NL in the meantime).

I had a good May at the 15/30 on Party. I was plus $4K. Then, I went to Vegas for the WSOP in June (vacation) and the bottom fell out in 10 days. I lost 70% of $10K playing cash game NL with some incredibly bad beats....AA vs an AJ bluff on a rag flop....turn and river both rags....-2K and Js9s push by me on a Ts8s rag flop vs. 7s6s who called and caught a pair....just trying to say that I was 70% unlucky and 30% was my fault.

No doubt, I played way over my head as I shold have had $20K plus for a $1K buy-in NL game...the bad beats were just a risk I took and lost at it.

After that, I had some significant personal expenses (about $2,200) and my bankroll was nearly wiped out. I had never kept more than a 300BB bankroll and I paid the price. (Please guys, have more than that as I enjoy most of the discussion in this forum).

I dropped down in limits and have stuck to internet play almost entirely since then. I started low to get used to multitabling (which I had not done more than 3 tables prior to this) and I can do 6 tables comfortably. I have also purchased a 2001FP to go along with my laptop to help keep from timing out or making mistakes.

I have also worked in the tighter lower limits where average VPIP roams from 15-25 and I have reworked my game for the tighter, more aggressive play online.

Now, I am working from the assumption that I should be able to make 1BB/100. If I can do this, I need to know what the best path to take with the least risk is in order to reach my goal.

My Goal: I need to make $72K within a given amount of time. I have calculated how the time and how many tables I can reasonably play (considering the time it takes to join tables and otherwise) and have come up with a table hours figure. I need to make it by December 2006. I have come up with a schedule below which consists of 10hours per week...4 tables per hour...and it includes the hours that I should be able to play in a month (busy season versus non-busy season for accountants) and it includes vacation.

I need this money in order to start my own practice. I want to keep a legit poker bankroll to keep my earnings up to at least $3K per month while I get my practice going. I have presented the details in a schedule below. (BTW, if any of you need help with your taxes, holla). I am looking to see if I am mistaken at all with this schedule. Please feel free to ask questions if you don't understand something.

If I need to make goal, and I plan on snowballing back from the depths at 5/10 to 10/20 to 15/30 and finally to 30/60...what is the maximum bankroll that I can have before jumping to then next level if I have 2,648 table-hours (actually 662 hours X 4 tables per hour average) to do this? I have ascertained that I will have to jump to 10/20 at 500 BB and to 15/30 and 30/60 at 600 BB. Is there a better way to do this? I have this in an excel spreadsheet but it will not post properly (if anyone knows how to post a spreadsheet that is formatted, please tell me and I will post mine). BTW, poker is great for entrepreneurs.

EDITED: I added "a job" to the first sentence of the second paragraph.

#2 11-20-2005, 04:45 AM

After reading this post, i realized how much people HATE hearing about other peoples bad beats.

I promise to quit telling bad beat stories to everyone here unless it's like some sick donkey one outter.

EDIT: I'm going to quit telling bad beat stories.

EDIT: add that to New Years resolutions.

Subfallen · #3 11-20-2005, 04:51 AM

WTF?? Worst post ever.

tongni · #4 11-20-2005, 04:57 AM

This thread is now about the worst, most crippling bad beat you've ever experienced. Mine would be clicking on this post.

Edit: Added an actual bad beat

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (3 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Button raises, 1 fold, Hero calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero raises, Button calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, Button caps, Hero calls.

River: (12.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

Final Pot: 12.25 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has 2d Qd (one pair, kings).
Button has Ts 6s (two pair, kings and tens).
Outcome: Button wins 12.25 BB. 

NOOOOOOO

The Truth · #5 11-20-2005, 08:28 AM

I don't think you can make 70k this year playing only 10 hours a week.

It is easily possible to make 70k this year don't get me wrong.

The games online are much tougher than the games live. You must put in many hours playing and as many studying the game.

I am a full time student. I estimate I put in 60+ hours a week playing and studying poker.

Put in 60+ a week and you can make 70k.

Put in 10 hrs a week. You'll probably end up breaking even, or grinding 3-6 all year. put in 10 hours of play 10 hours of study, you can get up to 5-10 maybe 10-20.

If you want to beat the 30 game, your gonna need more effort, its not easy sailing.

blake

Lestat · #6 11-20-2005, 10:02 AM

Well, I see you're going to be the type of acountant who has no problem offering your business clients aggressive tax strategy! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I think you're asking a lot. 72k in 560 hours of play starting at 5-10 just isn't reasonable without relying on a whole lot of good luck. The problem is, even if you take an aggressive approach to moving up in limits, normal variance makes it likely that you'll have to step down a time or two. Although, this (an aggressive moving up strategy), is your best chance at reaching your goal.

Mig · #7 11-20-2005, 02:49 PM

The most risky too...

Let say he is a 1BB player at 30/60 when he get there. Playing 4 tables, which will be hard for him if he put in 10 hours a week, he would be doing around 150$ / hours. That is supposing that in fact HE is a 1 BB player playing 4 tables. 72 000$ / 150$ = 500 hours. So you would need a full year of play at 30/60 to even remotly think to earn that much money...

Anyway good luck hehe

imported_stealthcow · #8 11-20-2005, 04:08 PM

how many hands do you have that are like this?

and what about that tstone hand with drG ?

stealthcow-

tongni · #9 11-20-2005, 04:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
how many hands do you have that are like this?

and what about that tstone hand with drG ?

stealthcow-

[/ QUOTE ]

This looks pretty much like every other hand of limit holdem I've ever played. Also I forgot about that hand, that was sick. It made me wish I was back at home so I could throw my monitors.

CardSharpCook · #10 11-20-2005, 06:05 PM

I loved it when Tongni was at my table. He gives a LOT of action with 7high, no draw, or whatever. Apparently he's moved up to 30/60, which is surprising. I had a real hard time imagining him as a winning player, but there is some method to his madness. He drives players crazy. Like the hand he posted, the villian probably knows him and knows to press his draw this hard against him because there is chance all he has to do is get Q-high to fold. Tongni's style creates a lot of action... and results in "bad beats" like this. To be honest, I'm not sure if it is "style" or "tilt", but whatever it is, it creates hands with a lot of action. I imagine if he stumbles across the correct ratio of madness/value-capping, it could work. I was very surprised when I discovered he posts here. When I learned that, I diagnosed him as understanding TAG theory, but not quite getting that you need to fold sometimes. I'm curious how he does and his explanation for his....style.