It feels good to be the bubble boy, BODOG 100k

sapster · #1 06-05-2005, 05:25 PM

57~ remaining and top 54 pay. I have 10k stack which is a little over average I think at the time. Blinds are 400/800. I'm on the button and both blinds are short around 3k and 4k (they need a monster to call probably). People have been bullying the shorter stacks at the table recently for good reason. Cutoff has 20k and raises to 2k, I have KTs and I push, thoughts?

yoadrians · #2 06-05-2005, 05:30 PM

Thoughts: Bad push.

*I'll edit this and still say 'bad push' unless you had an incredible read on the big stack ... which I'm guessing you probably didn't. I wouldn't mind the push if you had the raiser covered and the blinds were still small stacks, but since he has you covered, he's going to say to himself, "If I win this hand, I'm in GREAT shape to make a run at this thing. If I lose, I still EASILY make the money."

So, the only way he doesn't call your push is if he's on a stone-cold bluff ... and even then, given the situation, he still might call figuring his 'any two' cards will be live.

THATWACOKID · #3 06-05-2005, 05:31 PM

This would be much better if you had him covered

sapster · #4 06-05-2005, 05:33 PM

Ok at least try to give some reasoning, bad push is very helpful thanks. Also I am quite aware this would be better if he had less chips than me. My question is if he is raising a huge range of hands (might even be any 2 for obvious reasons) is risking the bubble worth increasing my stack by 1/3 for free a great percentage of the time worth it?

yoadrians · #5 06-05-2005, 05:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Ok at least try to give some reasoning, bad push is very helpful thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

I edited with reasoning ... hope it helps.

sapster · #6 06-05-2005, 05:38 PM

Your reasoning seems very flawed, why would he call with any 2 just because he thinks he is live, my move indicates huge strength, "gee I worked hard to get 20k lets blow half of it with less than a premium hand because this guy is raising me with junk risking his tournament life on the bubble." I don't tihnk im getting called here by less than AQ+ or TT+

kiffl · #7 06-05-2005, 06:25 PM

I don't like your push, but then again I dont have the balls to make this play. The range of hands you think you are going to get called with is still pretty big, therefor I think you should fold.

yoadrians · #8 06-05-2005, 06:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Your reasoning seems very flawed, why would he call with any 2 just because he thinks he is live, my move indicates huge strength, "gee I worked hard to get 20k lets blow half of it with less than a premium hand because this guy is raising me with junk risking his tournament life on the bubble." I don't tihnk im getting called here by less than AQ+ or TT+

[/ QUOTE ]

You are asking for input, and I gave it. My guess is you're looking for some thought processes on how to play it better next time - because you busted? - and I think I'm giving you a good way to look at it.

Listen, you have everything to lose in this situation. Yes, you're showing huge strength - I can't argue with that. But if he's got a solid hand, AA-77, AK, AQs, you're getting called. Hell, 66 or 55 might call and hope for a race putting you on overs.

His range of calling hands here based on stack-size and situation alone is bigger than you assume. I admire the balls it took to make this play on your part. But I think there are better spots out there for you to wait for, and on the bubble, and with your stack, man, why put it all on the line with KT?

Also, I don't think you're thinking about this thing from the villain's point of view. The villain is making the money, pretty much, no matter what happens. But you're giving him a chance to add big-time to his stack going into the final stages of a tournament. I think you need to put yourself into his shoes before you make this play ... and I know you said, "gee I worked hard to get 20k lets blow half of it with less than a premium hand because this guy is raising me with junk risking his tournament life on the bubble."

But why, just as easily, couldn't he say, "gee I worked hard to get 20k ... and here's a great chance to win a race and get to 31K, putting me in a great situation going into the money."

I know you don't like it, but think about it next time.

Just my two cents. We're all entitled to our own opinions, of course.

sapster · #9 06-05-2005, 07:00 PM

I am going to try and put some math behind this hand and might do it wrong so would appreciate any help if this is wrong.

Assuming I am called 25% of the time (a reasonable estimate by a fellow 2+2er but one which I still believe is too high)

.75*13200 (75% of the time I take what is in the pot)

Against the range of AA-88, AKs-ATs, Ako-Ajo, KQs,Kqo, I am a 35% favorite to win this pot.

35% of the remaining 25% is 8.75%- .0875*21200
16.25% of the time i will lose my 10k stack-.1625*-10k

Adding these up we get, 10130, so clearly it is +chipev but probably slightly -ev.

Assuming he is stealing a greater % of the time or may not even call with hands as weak as ajo and 88 ( a very reasonable guess) the chip ev goes up nicely.
Any thoughts on this?

sapster · #10 06-05-2005, 07:19 PM

Anyone have any thoughts on my terrible math skills? Is this play not clearly +ev if he is calling ~10% of the time or less considering my read of the situation? Am i really this terrible, I have had some nice mtt success but maybe I'm just a luckbox.