Hand Reading, PP style

[woodguy]

UTG never tries to defend his hand on a draw heavy board.

UTG has a medium pair that didn't hit.

MLG has nothing because he knows UTG is scared of all 3 over cards, and he probably should have raised the turn if he had a hand worth protecting, unless he turned the straight because you really don't have to fear clubs here with the A on board and the open MR.

UTG should call with K high, but won't.

Regards,
Woodguy

[JohnFR]

I would say MLG bluffs at this more than you think with a missed draw, but I think his draw needs to be big to call that turn bet, something like KQc,KJc,Axh, T9s,T8s, something that either gives him a pair and flush draw, or straight and flush draw. So if I can beat most of these hands I am calling.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
I would say MLG bluffs at this more than you think with a missed draw, but I think his draw needs to be big to call that turn bet, something like KQc,KJc,Axh, T9s,T8s, something that either gives him a pair and flush draw, or straight and flush draw. So if I can beat most of these hands I am calling.

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I'm probably way off, but when UTG doesn't bet to protect on the flop then makes a mediumish bet on the turn and no one else calls (MLG last to act after everyone else folded), he decided to call to see what the river bet would look like, if it looks weak, come over top.

Regards,
Woodguy

[JohnFR]

He has only 30 chips invested in the pot on the turn, and he is facing a half pot bet(not terribly weak), and with the check on the river he is allowing his opponent to check behind with a medium strength hand which takes away a LOT of bluffing opportunities, so he has some sort of draw to make this play, I don't think he has random junk, unless he bet big on the river, but he checked so he has to be worried about the guy checking behind. If MLG had bet the river instead of checkraising, I would say he could have junk, but he is much more likely to have some sort of big drawing hand, or a big hand in general to play it this way.

[Gomez22]

I haven't read any replies yet, but would like to give my thoughts with reasoning. Please feel free to critique.

PRE-FLOP: An min-raise from EP is always somewhat screwy. With no reads, I have to put him on the following range:
AA-88,AK(s)-AT(s), KQ(s).

FLOP: Nice drawing flop gets checked through. My thought process is this: If UTG had AK, AQ, I think he leads to both protect and find out where he is. AA, JJ, AJ are strong contenders for a check-raise (but that's more geared to limit in this situation). I think KK, QQ, TT, 99, 88, KQ all check this flop as well, as does AT. Based on that, I narrow his range a touch to: AA-88, AJ, AT, KQ.

TURN: After the blinds check, he now leads by betting 40% of the pot, again into 5 players. Here, I think we can throw out TT-88. So... if this player isn't some coked-out tard, I'm looking at AA-JJ, AJ, AT, KQ.

RIVER: A blank. After being called on the turn, I don't think KK leads again, unless it's a blocking bet, and 300 into a 660 pot seems a bit large for that, so I disregard KK and KQ now. So I am basically thinking: AA, QQ, JJ, AJ, AT. (and to be honest, something about all of these does not seem right, but this is just an exercise, right?). I think AA, QQ, JJ, AJ all bet ~400 on the river or something at least 1/2 pot size...

You are putting a good bit of your stack in here on the river, so I am immediately thinking you have AT LEAST 2 pair (you're representing that, to say the least). Your actions on the flop and turn have me thinking AXs (C or H), and possibly QJ. I can't see you having KT as you wouldn't check the river without a great read on his aggression here. 55 is a possibility, although I think you raise him on the turn with that, so my thoughts are: Ah7h or QJ, and I'm leaning HEAVILY to Ah7h.

If I were villain, I think I let my AT go, but would call with AJ, AQ, AA-JJ.....

LOL - I really feel like I butchered this right now!

[woodguy]

good points.

thats why i suck at these, and this game.

Regards,
Woodguy

[JohnFR]

This further shows how awesome position is, a lead bluff isn't nearly as strong as a check-raise bluff, but if you go for the check raise bluff after investing a decent amount on the turn, you are risking him checking behind. At least if you have position you can see how he bets and raise him. That is why calling JUST on the intention of bluffing on the river should ONLY be done in position, unless you plan on leading the river.

[justT]

[ QUOTE ]
This further shows how awesome position is, a lead bluff isn't nearly as strong as a check-raise bluff, but if you go for the check raise bluff after investing a decent amount on the turn, you are risking him checking behind. At least if you have position you can see how he bets and raise him. That is why calling JUST on the intention of bluffing on the river should ONLY be done in position, unless you plan on leading the river.

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If you read the UTG as weak here, you might call the turn and lead bluff or check-raise bluff depending upon the river. If the river is a heart or club, you lead bluff, if it isn't, then you check-raise bluff if/when UTG value bets.

[Tyler Durden]

[ QUOTE ]
Im from NY, not AZ. Different Scarsdale.

[/ QUOTE ]

There isn't a Scarsdale in Arizona. Perhaps you're thinking of Scottsdale.

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Im from NY, not AZ. Different Scarsdale.

[/ QUOTE ]

There isn't a Scarsdale in Arizona. Perhaps you're thinking of Scottsdale.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I suck at reading people. All this time I thought this backwards arizonian was rooting for the Yankess. It all seems so clear now. Knowing that MLG is from NY, this HAS to be a bluff.

Seriously though, I think I overvalued the entire hand. My problem comes back to, what on earth does UTG bet on the river for an amount that is callable by MLG. And the answer is two pair or better - or a bluff. Also, what does MLG bet on the river. I think the answer here is two pair. What does he call with on the river? Two pair or less. What does he raise with here? Trips or better - or a bluff. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.