desperate times

[stripsqueez]

5 left and i'm in the BB with 7d7s - after posting the blind of T500 i have T500 left

folded to the button who pushes a T2000 stack - SB calls with a T2500 stack - these guys arent chooks - i reckon the button isnt on a complete steal because he knows i call a push a lot - the SB plainly has a hand - a smaller pair is perhaps feasible but a big A probably most likely - remaining is the leader (UTG on this hand) and the other guy has T1000

how wussy can you be ?

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[durron597]

You still have to call. Say you fold and lose. You will have 500 chips left, and have to post the 250 SB next hand. Even if you win that hand, you will only double up if you push on the SB. No one will bust themselves by the time you have to post again, at which point you just have to get lucky with a random hand.

[Irieguy]

"i reckon the button isnt on a complete steal because he knows i call a push a lot"

I'm pretty sure this is a problem. The most common mistake I see short-handed is an over-willingness to call a push. Even if you know the guy's on a steal, you have to be very far ahead to avoid donating huge amounts of tournament equity to everyone sitting out. If you frequently call a push, you are probably not far enough ahead often enough.

Irieguy

[stripsqueez]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm pretty sure this is a problem. The most common mistake I see short-handed is an over-willingness to call a push. Even if you know the guy's on a steal, you have to be very far ahead to avoid donating huge amounts of tournament equity to everyone sitting out. If you frequently call a push, you are probably not far enough ahead often enough

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree - i often wander into the money in a fashion that should make many of my opponents ashamed

i meant that the button knows i will call a push with a much larger than usual range of hands because i'm plainly desperate - that should reduce the viability of the button stealing with crap and i reckon he is good enough to know it

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[Irieguy]

sorry, misunderstood. I see now.

Irieguy

[Gramps]

With a good track on the money, SB's calling off 2,000 of his 2,500 chips screams AK/big pair. You're a 4 to 1 dog against an overpair alone, and if SB doesn't have an overpair, the button might instead (or both). Best case scenario is probably 3 overcards (maybe a miracle AK vs. AK or something).

Sucks to be a puss, but with 500 chips and 3 hands to choose from to make a stand to at least double up, you still have some chance (especially 4-handed). If the other (non-UTG) player himself has a short stack, then all you have to is beat him.

I don't know if you're even a 1 in 4 shot on average to win the hand (if you call). Even if the 3rd place stack after this hand has 1,500 or so, I'd say you're better than 1 in 4 to make the money still. And sure, if you call and win you have 3,000 and a better shot at 1st and 2nd, but I think you get in the money much more by folding (and come out ahead EV wise in the long-run...but I'm too lazy to throw out some exact math).

If you had JJ or TT, then maybe you could call and hope for an underpair/overcards, etc.

[ChrisV]

You have to call. 6-1 is just too good. Most times you will be a little under 5-1 to win, but occasionally you will be up against, say, AK and AK - which is a massive overlay.

It hurts to flush your stack down the toilet, which is what's going to happen most of the time here, but this is your chance to virtually guarantee yourself money and have a decent crack at 1st. Next time have more than 1000 chips left when it gets to these blinds [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[LinusKS]

I think this is a call.

Best case scenario - the pusher has something like AT or KQs, the sb AK or AQ.

You're almost 50% to win the hand there, which is a heck of a lot better than your odds of even sneaking into the money if you fold.

I'm not sure of the odds of at least one of them having a bigger pair (something I should know, but don't), but they'd have to be pretty big to make this a fold.

Your extremely small chance of sneaking ITM is dispositive here, I think.

[willie]

call.....i don't really think that folding is an option here.

[LinusKS]

I'm not sure he's better than 1/4 to make the money here, if he folds. He has three hands to try to double up, and if he doubles, he's back to where he started - 1000 chips.

Of course, there's always the chance that somebody might go out - on the other hand, there's no guarantee, even if he does get back to where he started.

It's interesting to think about.

I'm not sure how the best way to calculate it is, but if you look to chip count alone, he clearly has a less than 1/4 chance at the money, since he has the fewest chips.