Overbet Bluff For Review

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it'd be interesting if people said what percent of time they think he'd call here. Maximum 10%, probably closer to 5%.

if he calls, then he calls. i think its a GREAT image play. It'd open the fricking flood gates. if he calls, then ill reevaluate and try to overbet with the nuts in certain situations.

its silly, just an idea.

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Yes, it would be interesting. How similar would the results and metagame effects be if your bet was more like $4k?

[AEKDBet]

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If I make any bonehead moves on UB
be sure to post them in 2+2!


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The concept is sound, but the overbet in this case is just too large


Im sure some math guru's could take a stab at some quantification. I'm going to sleep.

[PinkSteel]

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it'd be interesting if people said what percent of time they think he'd call here. Maximum 10%, probably closer to 5%.

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Breakeven 7.6%. Raw chance of him holding a 7 is a little better than that, but would he check the flop & turn with one?

God bless your read if it's that reliable.

[XXXNoahXXX]

What do you want to happen here, he folds and you show? He folds and you don't show? He calls (which i think would be mroe effective that the fold/show in terms of "opening the floodgates".? I feel like he will take this as a single event and unless you are willing to make this kind of a move more often than once, the floodgates will not really open. Unless you set up a pattern of overbetting a wide range of hands, I don't think he will be see every overbet and think back to this one hand. This is one of those situations where it sounds good in theory and may be justifiable on certain levels,but it seems like there are better ways to extract value by switching up your play without to this type of overbetting.

[wutevahung]

love this hand!
wow you got balls man, i bow down.

[AceHiStation]

I disagree on the "open the flood gates." Will this tilt him? Probably a little bit. But I'd like to think a solid player playing 50/100 knows what an image play is. He is not going to call your huge overbet next time with any pair. I personally feel that even at a 3/6 level I am able to pickup on these sorts of things. I see players reraising 72o preflop one of the first orbits they're sitting, then all of a sudden they don't raise preflop for another 3 orbits. Obviously they're trying to set a trap.

I personally like to bet my sets/straights/flushes very hard in my first few orbits and show them. In sessions where I hit a couple sets/monsters and bet them hard/show I do very well with isolation/continuation bet situations. If I don't hit many flops I tend to struggle a bit more.

Just my thoughts, hopefully someone was able to read that without losing their place ten times.

[NLfool]

I don't think you'll tilt people in nothing pots, especially when he probably has very little anyways. I mean you may have the best hand anyways so he'll just laugh to himself

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Arbitrary probably has Kane on a range like a boat or air so I'd think there is hardly a difference between calling with trips or a straight (or one pair). That is, until some sort of ovebet dynamic between arb and kane has been set up.

-Jason

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Isn't that the problem with this bet? If he can call this with one pair, this is clearly -EV.

Why not bet 3-5k?

[wins_pot]

two things...
-arb is pra
-this play is insane.
arb is capable of checking some very very strong hands here.
part of the pra magic is that he'll check-raise you all-in on the river with the nuts and then get you talking to yourself, "no way he checked that hand to me. surely i'm good here." then you call and your stack is gone.