Hypothetical Hand: 99 top set

[DavidC]

You're at a tough 2/4 table. In the last 20 hands, 10 of the hands have been three-way on the flop and 7 of those were raised preflop. There's been one big multiway pot, and a multiway pot that got short-handed on the turn. There's been one big limped pot, and it's been folded to the blinds a few times. It's a tough table. Furthermore, there's maybe 1 or 2 uber-donks on the table, 4 players that know the game well (yourself included) and then a few weak-tighties and a few SLPP guys.

Characters:
UTG is a shark, button is a loose passive player.

UTG limps, utg+1 folds, you're in UTG+2 and limp with 99, folded to the button who limps, sb folds, bb checks.

Board: 982 two tone, 4 players, 4 sb.

bb checks, utg bets, You raise, button calls, bb folds, utg 3-bets, hero to act... (11sb)

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Two questions, so far:

1) Should you have raised preflop?

2) What do you do, facing the three-bet?

--Dave.

[shant]

Raise preflop. Call here and pop the turn.

1) yes

2) cap

[ QUOTE ]
Raise preflop. Call here and pop the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

[DavidC]

Guys, thanks for telling me to raise preflop. I like that play best. Also, does your flop play change at all based on the cold-caller?

--Dave.

[DavidC]

Also, I'm more interested in hearing why you guys are doing this than what you're actually doing.

--Dave.

[shant]

By shark I assume you mean he is a TAG. When he limps UTG and then 3-bets this flop, I am putting him on AA that missed an LRR, or 88/22. You can discount the 22 and you can also add in a discounted KK that he may have gone for a LRR with.

The button is on some sort of draw, or has a pair he can't let go of. It's more likely something like a flush draw, or JT.

The TAG is going to bet this turn after 3-betting the flop almost all the time. You definitely have him beat, and if he has the set hands I think he might, you are probably going to get to cap the turn.

On the turn, if you put it to 2BB for the button to call, he may make a bad fold. Even if he doesn't you get him to call 2BB drawing against your set, and possibly 4BB if the TAG has the lower set hands and 3-bets your raise.

Either way, I really like where I'm at if I have your hand so I'm calling the flop and raising the turn.

[Shillx]

What do tough players limp UTG?

I would limp with AA-KK/AK-AQs/99-77 at a truly tough table (and intend to reraise). I would limp a few others with the intention of calling a raise.

He pretty much has a big overpair, a set or a big flush draw when he makes this play on the flop. The main concern for me is the 3rd player and how to keep him in the pot. If he was good and would only have a draw in this spot, I would wait and raise the turn. Since he can have a ton of different hands, I would jam it now in attempt to keep him around. There will also be a good chance that we will get check/raised on 4th street, and that might keep him around even longer.

Brad

Oh yeah I would just call preflop too. We do have an edge over AA-KK/AJs+/99-66/KQs, but that is just one possible range here. It is kinda a meh spot to be in. It isn't like he is some mass online multitabler or something.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
By shark I assume you mean he is a TAG.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not just that, but that he also knows that you're a TAG and will react accordingly.

[ QUOTE ]
When he limps UTG and then 3-bets this flop, I am putting him on AA that missed an LRR, or 88/22.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a good read, and I support it entirely. If he has AA and you call the flop and raise the turn, he will fold. If you cap the flop, he'll probably call down to the river. The difference between the two plays (barring when he hits an ace on the river) is 0.5BB, in favour of getting him to call down. That's not to say that he should do that, but he often will regardless, even though he knows that there's a huge chance that he's beat.

Now, I'm curious about two things still...

1) What are the chances of 88+22 vs AA? Edit: 22 = 6, 88 makes 12, and AA 12?

2) Will he be willing to call down vs a turn raise with 22? (probably) With 88? (definitely) Will he be willing to bet-three-bet the turn with 88 (woot!)? If you cap the flop, will he bet the turn with either of those hands? With both?

[ QUOTE ]
Either way, I really like where I'm at if I have your hand...

[/ QUOTE ]

I concur. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

I'm not sure what's the best play though. I guess it really depends on what the guy will do with 88/22, because I think he's going to fold to your set if you raise the turn after calling the three-bet and he has AA. Unfortunately I don't really know what he'll do if he has 88 or 22. I haven't read Shill's response yet, but I'm sure he'll tell us. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[DavidC]

Thanks, Shill. I hadn't even considered getting checkraised on the turn (that's PURE evil, by the way). [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

OOC, could you take a moment to reflect on how this guy's play will change between the situation where we cap the flop vs where we wait to the turn to raise, when he has a set?

Do you think that a shark would be capable of chucking AA if we waited to the turn to raise?

Edit: When I made this hand, it was basically a hand-reading analysis and not based on a real game. I unfortunately threw the button cold-caller in there just to make it applicable to microlimits, and I learned something from your response (jamming the flop to make sure that the guy calls down with little pairs, etc.).

I could have made an average guy call on the button preflop and fold on the flop instead, but I'm glad I didn't. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]