QQ UTG vs. good players

[bizaff]

Against just BB, I think you're probably right, but with a good player that covers us yet to act, this is significantly more difficult.

I don't think anyone is really addressing the fact that this pot is NOT heads-up - there's still 3 other people in: one bad tiny stack, one good small stack, and one good deep stack yet to act.

[DoomSlice]

I think if anything, the other 2 guys will be subsidizing you.

[wdeadwyler]

As usual, I think AJFenix and Doomslice have given us good lines. Im not sure which one I like more though.

[BobboFitos]

I think a set would checkraise the field, as he has position relative to the raiser. He did end action in a big pot, so he could easily have connectors or one pair here still (like A4, or 88). So his hand range is wide. Problem is you have people behind you.

If you call you let people in behind you, an A, 2, 5, 6, and 7 are all bad, and you dont even know if you have best hand anyway.

I raise to 65, take it from there.

Edit: Looking at stacks, once you raise to 65, the plan is basically fold if MP gets involved, but if the BB puts the rest in, it's a call. If he just calls, I'm all in on most turns. Maybe not an aAce or 7.

Given BB's hand range, and on top of that given that you don't think he has a set here, I'm really not a fan of raising to 65 here. He can definatly get away from most of his overpair holdings, given the action. Why scare him off here? He is drawing very thin with the majority of his holdings. The only thing we fear is MP2. MP2 is going away a high % of the time here to the original 25$ bet, and for the % of the time he doesn't, we saved ourselves 40$. Putting 65 in and then having MP2 push over our dead money makes me vomit. As for BB, he has about a pot sized bet left on the turn. If we get HU with him by the turn once again, and he makes a reasonable bet, he will pretty much be committed so putting him in for the rest of his money is fine. I think we are only getting played back at when we raise to 65$ on the flop when we are beat.

[CIncyHR]

OK, this is tough, but heres what I think-

BB is pretty much representing any overpair or a set. Our hand beats his hand range, so we cant fold. I dont think a clal is any good becuase it invites MP to come in and steal the pot. So I like a raise, probably a small one to say, $60 or $65. If MP STILL rasies, we fold, but were going to the felt against BB ebcuase of his stack size.

EDIT: I shoul;d have iuncluded 2 pair into his hand range as well, and waybe even just top pair. I still like my line. I don't want to smooth call and have MP2 raise behind, becuase I'd have to fold and it's very likely to be the best hand.

[GrunchCan]

[ QUOTE ]
Edit: Looking at stacks, once you raise to 65, the plan is basically fold if MP gets involved, but if the BB puts the rest in, it's a call. If he just calls, I'm all in on most turns. Maybe not an aAce or 7.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking push the flop & root for folds.

[pho75]

The hands you beat are JJ-66 (36 ways). The hands that beat you are 55,44,33,54,43,A2 (43 ways). The times he has 65 and bets probably cancel out the times he has 67 and bets. Against a single opponent I'd call. The problem is, that a call could price in some draws, or you could get raised. I think I would fold.

I don't see MP raising the 25$ here on a steal very often. I don't fear that here. I see him folding most of the time. Blindly pushing and only getting folds when you were way ahead and only getting called when drawing dead or to two outs makes pushing sound pretty bad to me. I guess when in doubt, go all in and pray, eh?

[ QUOTE ]
I'd fold. The hands you beat are JJ-66 (36 ways). The hands that beat you are 55,44,33,54,43,A2 (43 ways). The times he has 65 and bets probably cancel out the times he has 67 and bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are giving incorrect weight to 54, 43, A2. We should at least assume that villain is only playing suited variants of these hands, if we are going to consider them with the same probability as the overpairs. I don't see a solid BB calling here with A2o, 4/3o, and 5/4o very often.