Flopped a set, but the worst card in the deck hits the turn

edge · #1 07-14-2005, 07:01 PM

Converter is still messing up. I'm Button in a 4-handed Party 3/6 game with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and 730 behind. UTG folds and I raise to 24. SB with 740 behind calls. I have only been at the table for two orbits or so, and SB hasn't done anything dumb yet. No reads other than that.

Flop is 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] with a pot of about 54.

SB bets 25, I make it 80, he calls.

Turn 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] with a pot of around 215.

SB bets 225. He has about 400 left.

AZK · #2 07-14-2005, 07:28 PM

call, fold the river barring improvement if he moves in?

Alex/Mugaaz · #3 07-14-2005, 07:32 PM

I agree

Rotating Rabbit · #4 07-14-2005, 08:04 PM

yeah if you fill up youll get his last 400 if he just got there so there are good enough odds on that alone.

Smokey_McPot · #5 07-14-2005, 09:30 PM

I say push.

I havn't gone over the numbers in depth but at first look what hits me is that you don't have the combined implied and pot odds to make the call on the turn (even if we assume that he would pay you off on the river if the board pairs).

To make this a profitable situation you need to mix in some fold equity. By pushing your telling villain that you have a hand, and he might lay down a small flush or a straight, also he would be hard pressed to make the call if he in fact has a set of nines. If he calls you with a flush or a straight you still have 10 outs to the river.

By playing your nut flushes the same way your opponents are going to have a hard time reading you in such situations.

An added bonus of this play is that the other players at the table will probably slow down a bit before considering bluffing you when a scarecard hits in the future.

creedofhubris · #6 07-14-2005, 10:06 PM

You're not quite where you need to be odds-wise to call for a boat. But it's close, and you want to be careful about getting into the habit of laying down something this strong.

(It's also possible opponent has something you're ahead of like AA with the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or 22 or 98.)

I'd call and see a river.

edge · #7 07-14-2005, 10:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
To make this a profitable situation you need to mix in some fold equity. By pushing your telling villain that you have a hand, and he might lay down a small flush or a straight, also he would be hard pressed to make the call if he in fact has a set of nines. If he calls you with a flush or a straight you still have 10 outs to the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think there's pretty close to a 0% chance he lays down a straight or flush on the turn, and he almost surely calls with 99.

kagame · #8 07-15-2005, 01:54 AM

a push here makes little to no sense imo

edge · #9 07-15-2005, 03:50 AM

Ok, it seems like everyone wants to call here, and that's what I did too. The river is 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] with a pot of around 665 and stacks of 400 and SB checks to me. Do I move in, representing A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A or K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K, or just check it through and cry?

Smokey_McPot · #10 07-15-2005, 05:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, it seems like everyone wants to call here, and that's what I did too. The river is 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] with a pot of around 665 and stacks of 400 and SB checks to me. Do I move in, representing A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A or K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K, or just check it through and cry?

[/ QUOTE ]
This is in part what I wanted avoid by pushing on the turn. If you end up in this situation again but instead have the high flush, villain either would already have paid you off on the turn with a lower flush or a straight knowing how you play your sets, and you wouldn't be in a spot where he can lay down a small flush or straight easily. Also, what if he had pushed on the river? You would have invested nearly enough to be committed to the pot with no way to win but vs a complete bluff if another spade hits.

On the actual hand however, I'd say push the river and cry if he calls you with a high spade. Checking would mean your pretty much toast, but pushing would probably force him to lay down a chunk of his HD. On the other hand it does seem like this is the type of river play he'd make with a high spade, allowing you to give him your entire stack. It would probably come down to what kind of hands villain could have based on how he's played previously, putting you in a tough spot not having much of a read on him.

In the end you can never ever (ever) profit directly from calling the turn bet in this situation. It's simply a -EV call since the combined pot odds and implied odds don't add up to make up for the call (and thats assuming he pays you off every single time when the board pairs). Fold or allin in my book.