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#11
07-15-2005, 05:55 AM
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Re: Flopped a set, but the worst card in the deck hits the turn
[ QUOTE ]
In the end you can never ever (ever) profit directly from calling the turn bet in this situation. [/ QUOTE ] That's only true if the hero is behind every time on this turn, which he is not. SpaceAce 
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#12
07-15-2005, 07:23 AM
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Re: Flopped a set, but the worst card in the deck hits the turn
I'd bet you're ahead of a hand that will not call a river bet. He took his stab at the pot and failed. There's no way, if I have a flush, I'm letting you off easy on the river by hoping to check-raise or something similar. I suppose there is a small chance he has a straight, and was testing the waters on the turn, trying to feel out the straight.
Why would you move in on the river representing AA or KK? Then, of the hands that would conceivably think they're ahead of you, you only beat a set of 2 or a set of 7...
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#13
07-15-2005, 08:06 AM
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Re: Flopped a set, but the worst card in the deck hits the turn
Whoops, I'm dumb. River was the 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], putting four spades on board. I'll go edit my last post.
Edit: I can't change it anymore. Oh well. The river may be a blessing in disguise, and it's definitely the 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
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#14
07-15-2005, 08:41 AM
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Re: Flopped a set, but the worst card in the deck hits the turn
I think its close.
But I think villian folds the J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 40% of the time. And thats the upper range of his hands that beat you. So I think a push is +EV.
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#15
07-15-2005, 08:54 AM
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Re: Flopped a set, but the worst card in the deck hits the turn
[ QUOTE ]
Why would you move in on the river representing AA or KK? Then, of the hands that would conceivably think they're ahead of you, you only beat a set of 2 or a set of 7... [/ QUOTE ] If your referring to my reply then disregard what I said about moving in on the river. That was just a thought that was prolly a bit (read: a lot) off. [ QUOTE ] There's no way, if I have a flush, I'm letting you off easy on the river by hoping to check-raise or something similar. [/ QUOTE ] On the other hand if villain had a second or third nut flush he'd get little value in betting the river out of position. Check calling would allow a bluff with a hand that would not have warranted calling, while cutting the losses of running into a bigger flush.
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