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#1
05-09-2005, 10:17 AM
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% of river check raise bluffs
This is pertaining to the party 5/10 6 max game as I assume 10/20 6 max is a little trickier and there might me a higher percentage of river check raise bluffs.
Right now I am paying off river check raises waaay too much, and I think I might be worried too much about bluffs. Another factor that is contributing to this leak is I'm constantly trying to push river value bets, so what inevitably is happening is I'm making a good yet pretty slim river value bets (if I would fold to the blasted raise) yet I'm paying off like a drunk in a strip club. Here's an example: I raised in MP with K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Only a huge 70/3/.5 donk in the BB calls, he's basically showing down any pair. The flop is K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] I bet he calls The turn is A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] I bet he calls The river is 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] I bet he raises and I pay off like a complete fish to find 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] So my question is what percentage of the river check raises in the party 5/10 6max game are bluffs, my guess is <5% probably closer to ~2%. 
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#2
05-09-2005, 10:19 AM
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Re: % of river check raise bluffs
Someone should write an access query for this.
Krishan
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#4
05-09-2005, 10:30 AM
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Re: % of river check raise bluffs
When I read your post title I thought you were asking what percentage of the time one should check-raise the river as a bluff. And I remember doing it once, ever.
Should I add that move to my arsenal? Does anyone commonly use it? I understand one should use it against an opponent who is willing to bet the river and fold to a c/r a good amount of the time, but these players tend to be TAGs and are generally very suspicious of other TAGs and are willing to call river checkraises with pretty weak hands.
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#5
05-09-2005, 10:35 AM
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Re: % of river check raise bluffs
[ QUOTE ]
This would be interesting to compare with 10/20. Also they need to be catagorised into different types of semi-bluff's, etc. [/ QUOTE ] No semi-bluffs on the river.
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#6
05-09-2005, 10:36 AM
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Re: % of river check raise bluffs
[ QUOTE ]
Also they need to be catagorised into different types of semi-bluff's, etc. [/ QUOTE ] How can you semi bluff when all of the cards are out? Per the definition in TOP it's a bet/raise with what is not likely the best hand at the moment but has the chance to improve to the best hand. Are you referring to a sort of half bluff, where you might be able to get a better hand to fold but could also be holding the best hand?
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#7
05-09-2005, 10:48 AM
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Re: % of river check raise bluffs
LOL I was thinking in general - about the access query thing, not neccessarily with respect to the river only....
I will make myself clearer next time [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
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#9
05-09-2005, 12:23 PM
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Re: % of river check raise bluffs
But my point is after the checkraise I just don't see myself good 11% of the time because there is really no second best hand here that he is check raising with. So I basically can only beat a complete bluff. I was just trying to get some people who have experience in this game give their guesstimate of the percentage of time these checkraises are bluffs.
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#10
05-09-2005, 12:23 PM
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Re: % of river check raise bluffs
[ QUOTE ]
But my point is after the checkraise I just don't see myself good 11% of the time because there is really no second best hand here that he is check raising with. So I basically can only beat a complete bluff. I was just trying to get some people who have experience in this game give their guesstimate of the percentage of time these checkraises are bluffs. [/ QUOTE ] I'd guess less than 5%.
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