A really tough sat decision (for me anyways)

[Che]

[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] you're a slight favorite against the opponent's range

[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] you're getting a huge overlay

[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] if you fold this, you have less than 1.5 BB, so you have no FE

***AND***

[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] it is very unlikely that you can fold your way to a seat

Add it all up and I think you have to call, but I'm definitely not a supersat expert. Maybe someone can identify the error in my analysis.

Later,
Che

[Hotrod0823]

I think the key is this is a TURBO Super Sat. When is the next blind jump?

Where are the other 7-8 Smaller stacks in relation to the button on there tables?

Clayton is the button here and will have 7 more hands to see before he HAS to make a move and even then he can wait it out.

I like to see the other tables and the smaller stacks relationship to the blinds. Are there 5 other stacks that are in MORE danger than you of going out?

I think having the button makes this a fold. Having 8 smaller stacks than you with 5 needing to bust makes this a fold.

Hotrod

[ClaytonN]

Thank you hotrod for the counter argument that was the main logic behind the angel on my left shoulder.

Thing is, I had zero folding equity after this push. The large stacks seriously were going to call with any two. ie no first in vigourish concept.

There was about elevnty hundred stacks that were around 22k. Winning this hand would have put me in 4th place and a lock for the tourney dollars. Yes, I have the button, but I have to move within the next amount of hands. It was going to get shorthanded before fullhanded, so I was looking at 4-5 hands after this, not 7. (because it's breaking from 27 to 18, so it's gonna be three SH tables)

Problem is the villain's unknown, so I have no idea what his opening standards were. I put myself as a favorite over his range easily.

So, I told myself a coinflip now was likely better than a dog 4 hands later. I didn't think I could steal the blinds after this.

[ClaytonN]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the key is this is a TURBO Super Sat. When is the next blind jump?

[/ QUOTE ]

soon enough that my entire stack would get blinded off in one BB/SB combo

[Yuv]

There's very little chance you will post your BB.

[ClaytonN]

There was about a 10% chance i wouldnt have to post my blinds.

[Yuv]

How many were in it? At that point of the turbo stas, it's AT LEAST one bust per hand.

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]
How many were in it? At that point of the turbo stas, it's AT LEAST one bust per hand.

[/ QUOTE ]