Slow play set on a dangerous flop?

[flyingmoose]

I bet a lot more than you did on the flop. I really don't want to give any draws 4:1 + implied odds of doubling up. I raise to about 180 on this flop.

[DPCondit]

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Generally you want to have a couple people limp in before you call with a small pair. Small pairs do better when you flop a set with many people in the pot, or when you are heads-up.

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Of course I'd prefer a couple of limpers, but if the people behind me haven't been raising a lot, I'll call. If it gets raised to 60 I'll stay, any more would be very opponent dependent. If I make my set I'm probably going to take a lot of chips from somebody, and I may be able to take down the pot without a set.

[flyingmoose]

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Generally you want to have a couple people limp in before you call with a small pair. Small pairs do better when you flop a set with many people in the pot, or when you are heads-up.

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Of course I'd prefer a couple of limpers, but if the people behind me haven't been raising a lot, I'll call. If it gets raised to 60 I'll stay, any more would be very opponent dependent. If I make my set I'm probably going to take a lot of chips from somebody, and I may be able to take down the pot without a set.

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The problem is that in level 2, you only have implied odds for a set against the other huge stacks. To play 55 for set value against 25bb (T750) stacks, you have to stack someone about 1/3 of the time you flop your set -- and even at the lower stakes they're just not that bad.

[DPCondit]

[ QUOTE ]
The problem is that in level 2, you only have implied odds for a set against the other huge stacks. To play 55 for set value against 25bb (T750) stacks, you have to stack someone about 1/3 of the time you flop your set -- and even at the lower stakes they're just not that bad.

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So if I get up against BB (who has 1700) and SB, I'm in position throughout the hand, and I can probably just take it down with a bet if it looks like they missed.

[flyingmoose]

[ QUOTE ]
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The problem is that in level 2, you only have implied odds for a set against the other huge stacks. To play 55 for set value against 25bb (T750) stacks, you have to stack someone about 1/3 of the time you flop your set -- and even at the lower stakes they're just not that bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

So if I get up against BB (who has 1700) and SB, I'm in position throughout the hand, and I can probably just take it down with a bet if it looks like they missed.

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If you know for a fact that nobody's going to raise the pot after you and you know for a fact you can take the pot down with a bet on the flop, you should limp any 2, shouldn't you?

[ilya]

Actually I would raise more. Make it 175-200.

[SammyKid11]

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If you don't think it's likely to be raised, why not see the flop?

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How am I to come to the conclusion that it is unlikely to be raised in the second round of a 33? Generally, players at 33's understand the value of basic aggressiveness. I would contend (though I have no data to support this contention, it's just a guess) that something in the vicinity of 60% of preflops are raised at a 33. So...because there have been 2 folds in front of our Hero and 2 players have been eliminated, let's assume there is only a 50% likelihood that this pot will be raised PF. Let's further assume that he makes a call like the one described in the OP 100 times.

50 of those times, there will be a preflop raise and Hero will fold, leaving his t30 on the table (Net: -t1500)

Of the 50 times he sees a flop, he will not flop a set 88.2% of the time, or 44 of those times...we'll assume Hero will not play poorly on any of those flops and will simply fold his small pair when he doesn't flop a set (Net: -t1320)

Now, 6 times out of the 100 times he calls, he will see the flop and it will contain the magical third 5. FANTASTIC!

Oh, except probably one out of those 6, Hero will end up losing all his chips to a flush, straight, higher set, etc. (~ -t800).

So, 5 winning sets later. The question is, can he make up for all the money he's lost by calling in with his pocket pair of fives? From EP? Against an unknown number of players behind him? Sometimes only the BB?

The answer is, probably not.

Now, put Hero on the Button against a minimum of 2 callers in front of him...and yeah, it's a profitable preflop call....because there's a FAR lower chance of preflop being raised behind you, you'll have a minimum of 2-3 players to hopefully make a good second best hand, and you'll be in position to more easily extract the maximum from those opponents in the cases when you hit your set.

(Note: This was clearly not a scientific approach -- I'm sure others on the site can more mathematically breakdown what I've just done and show errors...but my basic thought process shows what I think is going to happen in rough percentage terms).

Furthermore, even if open-calling from MP1 with 55 at Level 2 of a 33 is SLIGHTLY +tEV...I still think it's probably -$EV. Because by pushing a (possible) SLIGHT edge here, you take ammunition away from yourself in an awful lot of tournaments for when you reach the high-blind, larger edge situations.

I don't know if I've explained all this very well -- but these are my thoughts. Responses?

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

If you don't think it's likely to be raised, why not see the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

How am I to come to the conclusion that it is unlikely to be raised in the second round of a 33? Generally, players at 33's understand the value of basic aggressiveness. I would contend (though I have no data to support this contention, it's just a guess) that something in the vicinity of 60% of preflops are raised at a 33. So...because there have been 2 folds in front of our Hero and 2 players have been eliminated, let's assume there is only a 50% likelihood that this pot will be raised PF. Let's further assume that he makes a call like the one described in the OP 100 times.

50 of those times, there will be a preflop raise and Hero will fold, leaving his t30 on the table (Net: -t1500)

Of the 50 times he sees a flop, he will not flop a set 88.2% of the time, or 44 of those times...we'll assume Hero will not play poorly on any of those flops and will simply fold his small pair when he doesn't flop a set (Net: -t1320)

Now, 6 times out of the 100 times he calls, he will see the flop and it will contain the magical third 5. FANTASTIC!

Oh, except probably one out of those 6, Hero will end up losing all his chips to a flush, straight, higher set, etc. (~ -t800).

So, 5 winning sets later. The question is, can he make up for all the money he's lost by calling in with his pocket pair of fives? From EP? Against an unknown number of players behind him? Sometimes only the BB?

The answer is, probably not.

Now, put Hero on the Button against a minimum of 2 callers in front of him...and yeah, it's a profitable preflop call....because there's a FAR lower chance of preflop being raised behind you, you'll have a minimum of 2-3 players to hopefully make a good second best hand, and you'll be in position to more easily extract the maximum from those opponents in the cases when you hit your set.

(Note: This was clearly not a scientific approach -- I'm sure others on the site can more mathematically breakdown what I've just done and show errors...but my basic thought process shows what I think is going to happen in rough percentage terms).

Furthermore, even if open-calling from MP1 with 55 at Level 2 of a 33 is SLIGHTLY +tEV...I still think it's probably -$EV. Because by pushing a (possible) SLIGHT edge here, you take ammunition away from yourself in an awful lot of tournaments for when you reach the high-blind, larger edge situations.

I don't know if I've explained all this very well -- but these are my thoughts. Responses?

[/ QUOTE ]

I like your reasoning, although I think your estimates are a bit pessimistic. But on the whole I also think 55 is too low a pair to open-limp in LEP.

[DPCondit]

[ QUOTE ]
How am I to come to the conclusion that it is unlikely to be raised in the second round of a 33? Generally, players at 33's understand the value of basic aggressiveness. I would contend (though I have no data to support this contention, it's just a guess) that something in the vicinity of 60% of preflops are raised at a 33. So...because there have been 2 folds in front of our Hero and 2 players have been eliminated, let's assume there is only a 50% likelihood that this pot will be raised PF. Let's further assume that he makes a call like the one described in the OP 100 times.


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It depends on the texture of the game, and how opponents are reacting to you specifically. In many game textures, I wouldn't consider it, but sometimes the tables can be fairly passive.

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50 of those times, there will be a preflop raise and Hero will fold, leaving his t30 on the table (Net: -t1500)


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Is there a 50% chance? Depends on the table, some will be 75%, some will be 25%. One size does not fit all. Further, if they only minraise, I'm calling, any more would depend on the opponent. Some opponents define their hands pretty well with their raises, and if you have a good idea what they have, you can have a better idea if the flop hits them. Calling a raise is very opponent, and raise size dependent.

[ QUOTE ]
Of the 50 times he sees a flop, he will not flop a set 88.2% of the time, or 44 of those times...we'll assume Hero will not play poorly on any of those flops and will simply fold his small pair when he doesn't flop a set (Net: -t1320)


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That is your assumption, not mine. I disagree. Most of the time your opponents are on big cards, and if it comes small you are probably ahead. Of course many times you will have to fold when you miss your set, but not every time, that is playing way too scared.

[DPCondit]

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If you know for a fact that nobody's going to raise the pot after you and you know for a fact you can take the pot down with a bet on the flop, you should limp any 2, shouldn't you?

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You don't know any such thing for a fact, but sometimes it is more likely than others. One size does not fit all. There are times you should limp with any two, but this is not one of them.