Performify's Pigskin Picks - Week Nine

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This week is a mass of public opinion. Earlier in the week, the site I use to track public opinion plays was the most one-sided (across all the games) that I'd ever seen in four years of using the site. The massive public favorites have done pretty poorly this year, so either this weekend is going to be a massive regression to the mean (meaning the public is going to win a lot more games than they usually do, balancing out their losing trend) or its going to be a landslide victory for the bookmakers.

Yeah, I'm going with the latter.

Last week: 3-2 with a win on game of the week. 4-2 if I hadn't waved off Oakland.
Season results: 22-16 for the year (58%), 6-2 on the game of the week (75%).

I'm suggesting 4-2-2-1 unit plays this week (or 2-1-1-.5 if you prefer). I'm not exceedingly happy about the games, there are a lot of injury variables involved and there might be a lot of last-minute adjustments based upon late news or line shifts. As usual, all lines listed current from Bodog but please lineshop aggressively

Arizona +4 (-105) vs Seattle
A matchup of a very solid and balanced team in Seattle, against a very one sided pass-first team in Arizona. Arizona does have a pretty solid defense, ranked 15th against the run and 18th against the pass. Look for Arizona to stick eight and possibly even nine men in the box against Seattle - big day for Seattle's wide receivers, but a slower than usual day for S.A. Warner is back at QB for Arizona, and while he might be a little rusty he's a major improvement over McCown and should be able to throw the ball against Seattle pretty well. Seattle has allowed 11 touchdowns this year, and 9/11 have come through the air. Arizona also has a tremendous special teams threat in Neil Rackers, who should be good for three field goals on route to a 23-21 outright victory for Arizona. And worst case this is a three point win for Seattle. This is also a major public perception play, with a 75% - 25% split in public opinion against Arizona according to Wagerline, and 6/6 Yahoo experts (and all the ESPN experts who've selected their games, which is only 3/8 out of this posting). Game of the week.

Carolina -1.5 at Tampa Bay
I know the general public is all over this game as well (62%-38%), but you have to remember that the general public is only wrong about 55% - 60% of the time at worst. When you factor in the 10% vig charged by most books, you're looking at a landslide advantage for the house, where they're winning a majority of the games outright and making an extra 10% from those who do win against them. In short, you can't go wrong picking against the public in general, but when you're picking a small subset of games you can't go against public opinion all the time. I let public opinion talk me out of solid analysis on Oakland winning last week, and I'm not going to do it again this week. Gruden is an excellent coach, but his Bucs are facing a strong Carolina rush defense (#2 in the NFL) who will be able to reliably stack eight and nine in the box against the Tampa running game and get serious pressure on rookie QB Chris Simms. Carolina QB Jake Delhomme is 4-0 against Tampa Bay. Look for Carolina to use more of DeShaun Foster against the strong Tampa Bay run defense, as Foster brings big-play capability to the table and Davis is still banged up. Look for Carolina to shut down the Tampa Bay offense in whole, stuffing the run and really pressuring and confusing Simms. 21-17 Carolina.

Detroit (pk) at Minnesota
Minnesota has owned Detroit in the past, winning nine of the past ten meetings including all of the last six. However, Detroit is actually 7-2 ATS against the Vikings in the last nine meetings and is still 5-2 ATS this year. Detroit knows that the Vikes have had their number in recent years, and Detroit needs this game more than the Vikings (Detroit is second in the division, a game behind Chicago). Look for Kevin Jones to hit his first 100-yard rushing game of the year, against a Vikings defense that's ranked #29 against the run. Pro bowl DT Shaun Rogers will be the key to this game - he's questionable at the moment but has stepped up his practice participation on Thursday and Friday and hopefully will be able to go for Detroit - if he's in the lineup, even not at 100%, he will dramatically affect the Minnesota run game and help get pressure on Johnson, both of which will really disrupt the struggling Vikings offense. Rogers plays left tackle and is usually double-teamed by the center and right guard, which will mean dangerous RT Dan Wilkinson will be one-on-one with struggling Vikings LG Chris Liwienski which means a ton of pressure up the middle for the Lions. If Rogers is out, feel free to lay off this game or play for a single unit, but with Rogers in I feel this is an easy two-unit play under my betting system. Also, feel free to lay off this game under the "Tice Rule" (don't bet on or against Mike Tice) if you're uncomfortable there. 24-17 Detroit.

Miami +2 (-105) vs Atlanta
Atlanta is allowing 4.7 yards per carry on the ground, and Miami is showing a much improved run game with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams who combined for 188 yards rushing last week. Marino will be honored at a halftime presentation, which should help to pump up the players and the crowd. Dolphins getting Seau back at LB should be a big help in trying to contain the Falcon's rushing attack. Almost purely a public perception play: I expected this line to be much higher (for Atlanta) which is usually a sign that there is something I'm missing. The public is all over this game, with 77% of the public favoring Atlanta versus 23% for Miami. 21-20 Atlanta for the Miami cover.

As usual, all picks archived on my blog http://performify.com