blind steal here?

[Matt R.]

Party 10+1 MTT. Top 60 pay, 70 left. I felt like this was an easy blind steal push given my stack size -- the average stack in the tourney was up around 7-8K at this point. I'm not playing just to squeak into the money, so that's not a factor. Look okay?


#Game No : 2539182150
***** Hand History for Game 2539182150 *****
NL Texas Hold'em Trny:14858599 Level:9 Blinds (200/400) - Monday, August 15, 11:47:28 EDT 2005
Table Multi-Table(426788) Table #5 (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: reavely ( $2160 )
Seat 2: alfagabi ( $509 )
Seat 4: GAMBLEON13 ( $8560 )
Seat 5: Chills19 ( $7370 )
Seat 6: jonrx ( $250 )
Seat 7: Woofstar ( $4695 )
Seat 8: babooshkbitz ( $6222 )
Seat 9: *Hero* ( $2570 )
Seat 10: LCR33 ( $3620 )
Seat 3: ga_ffemt ( $24291 )
Trny:14858599 Level:9
Blinds (200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 3d Tc ]
alfagabi folds.
ga_ffemt folds.
GAMBLEON13 folds.
Chills19 folds.
jonrx folds.
Woofstar folds.
babooshkbitz folds.
*Hero* is all-In [2570]

[Rizen]

I don't like it. The BB has a huge stack and your stack is small enough you're giving him good enough pot odds to call with any reasonable hand easily. I'm certainly no advocate of playing passively on the bubble, but I think you have to choose your spots, and an all in raise with T3 from obvious steal position against a who stack who will be getting almost 3:2 odds is not the spot I would choose.

If you have a read on the player that makes you think he might fold even reasonable hands then it's fine, but I'm waiting for a little better situation.

-Rizen

[Matt R.]

Real quick, reavely ($2160) is the BB in this hand, not the huge stack. Yeah, I hate how party poker orders the players in their HH too [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img].

[illegit]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like it. The BB has a huge stack and your stack is small enough you're giving him good enough pot odds to call with any reasonable hand easily.

[/ QUOTE ]
WTF. Pot is @3100, costs BB @ 2100 to call. Odds of 1.5-1 are enough to call off all of his chips with just about anything? Uh, OK. Hero has plenty of FE. Yeah if BB wakes up with a hand then you're going to be a dog but that's just a risk you must take with an M of 4 in this spot. BB will probably be playing tighter than he should as well. EDIT: just realized BB doesn't even have a stack as big as hero's and thus his odds are better, but still he's not calling without a strong hand if he's a typical too tight on the bubble player.

I push with any 2 here unquestionably. A terrible hand when folded to OTB and still w/ FE >>>>> a pretty solid hand after someone's already entered a pot. You're not going to have many opportunities like this so take it while it's there.

[Rizen]

I misread who the BB was based on the hand history. I push given that the BB is shorter than that.

And yes, if I were the BB with that stack I would call off 1.5:1 with any reasonable hand in this situation knowing that Hero would likely push with any 2.

If the big stack is in the BB, I don't like this push. Maybe that's weak-tight of me, but I think you get called and are significantly behind often enough here not to risk it with T3o.

-Rizen

[Rizen]

[ QUOTE ]
Real quick, reavely ($2160) is the BB in this hand, not the huge stack. Yeah, I hate how party poker orders the players in their HH too [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img].

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, the hand history threw me off. I say this in my other post, but given the different BB I do push here, and I think your FE goes way up against another short stack who may just be trying to make it into the money.

-Rizen