AA river action

topspin · #1 08-10-2005, 10:43 PM

After getting numerous comments about my aggression on the river (or lack thereof), I thought I'd review how I play a few river hands. Here's one from a recent 1/2 session.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 2 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG bets, MP2 raises, MP3 folds, Hero 3-bets, UTG calls, MP2 caps, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (12.75 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls, UTG calls.

River: (15.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, MP2 bets, Hero ...

MP2 in this hand has been tight preflop and aggressive postflop. Made a good hand on the river, do I go for overcalls here or fire off another raise?

closer2313 · #2 08-10-2005, 10:51 PM

Raise it, with only one person to act behind you, I dont think going for overcalls here will be beneficial. MP2 might 3 bet too if he has a set of 3s or 4s which it sure seems like.

gonzopro · #3 08-10-2005, 11:05 PM

I raise it here , call a 3 bet by MP2, and fold if UTG ck raises and MP2 caps. I agree that MP2 most likely has a lower set but a TAG could also play a nut flush draw the same way.

Blunderfull1 · #4 08-10-2005, 11:16 PM

Raise it up.
Well, MP2 cant have the nut flush draw cause we have the ace of spades, but I thought he was ramming and jammin with a set for sure. I guess Kxs is possibile if x is about a ten.

gonzopro · #5 08-10-2005, 11:26 PM

I'm stupid...

nomadtla · #6 08-10-2005, 11:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I raise it here , call a 3 bet by MP2, and fold if UTG ck raises and MP2 caps. I agree that MP2 most likely has a lower set but a TAG could also play a nut flush draw the same way.

[/ QUOTE ] I'm stupid...

[/ QUOTE ]

Not at all. I am more woried about UTG playing a flush draw this way. I feel like MP2 has a set guessing tens cause of preflop action. I'd call here cause I'm worried UTG is trying to "fancy play" his flush.
If I had a specific read on UTG that told me to raise (or if I wasn't such a wus) then I think your line has great merit. We're all learning here man take it easy on yourself and take criticism as freindly not mean. Part of learning is making mistakes. (Though in this case I think your thought process was pretty crisp.)

Peace

nomadtla · #7 08-11-2005, 02:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I raise it here , call a 3 bet by MP2, and fold if UTG ck raises and MP2 caps. I agree that MP2 most likely has a lower set but a TAG could also play a nut flush draw the same way.

[/ QUOTE ] I'm stupid...

[/ QUOTE ]

Not at all. I am more woried about UTG playing a flush draw this way. I feel like MP2 has a set guessing tens cause of preflop action. I'd call here cause I'm worried UTG is trying to "fancy play" his flush.
If I had a specific read on UTG that told me to raise (or if I wasn't such a wus) then I think your line has great merit. We're all learning here man take it easy on yourself and take criticism as freindly not mean. Part of learning is making mistakes. (Though in this case I think your thought process was pretty crisp.)

Peace

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok it's late and this has been bugging me on the drive home from work when I made the original post. Since it's late it's a good time for math IMHO. So to try and decide which option has the greatest expectation I'm gonna try and equate this. Now to make an equation of this you have to get some specific #'s. Maybe my numbers don't agree with your ideas but their my #'s and it's late so deal with it.
Basic assumptions for the equations:
1 If UTG has a flush he will allways raise/3-bet, and you know him well enough that you will fold to his raise/3-bet every time. He has the flush 20% of the time.
2 You will win against MP2 75% of the time (maybe an underestamite but had to put a # on it)
3 UTG will always fold for 2 unless he has the flush but will overcall for 1 10% of the time (obviously since he allways raises the flush his overcall is something you beat)
4 MP2 will 3 bet 40% of the time. You will allways call but when he 3 bets you the flush is more likely his holding so you only win that 70% of the time

Ok so lets look at just calling.
[-1*.40]+[((+1*.75)*.90)+((+2*.75)*.10)] =+.425

Now raising
[((-2*.40)*.60)+((-3*.30)*.40)]+[((2*.60)*.60)+((3*.70)*.40)] =.72

So by my math which may be spotty because it's late, raising is more profitable by .3BB.

Now you may question my %'s but I had to have some solid values to do the math, and I think the math (both equation and answers) is corect and it answers the question for me.
Granted as in TOP you can never be this certain about your percentages (even with good reads) but mathmatically I think this shows raising is better.

This was done as much for me as for anyone but I hope it at least gives you something to think about

Durs522 · #8 08-11-2005, 04:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I feel like MP2 has a set guessing tens cause of preflop action.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think he would limp/call preflop with 1010. It seems much more likely that he limped after one limper with 33/44.

You may have misread the hand as I did the first time confusing MP2 with the preflop raiser MP3.

Durs

irishpint · #9 08-11-2005, 12:04 AM

id raise, UTG has done nothing but call, we have no reason to be worried about him. We have top set, let's either win or lose some money here.

Fryguy · #10 08-11-2005, 01:02 AM

This is either a worse 2p/set, or a flush. I'd say it's more likely a flush (suited broadway perhaps?) and just call here.

Raising is just asking to get re-raised by a flush draw. Save the bet and show the hand down.