Can YOU get away from this hand?

I actually would like to ammend my earlier post and say that after relooking at the numbers, I agree that pushing all-in is the best play. Someone with AKsuited vs. JJ with 2 of their suit on the flop is about 50/50 with the jacks.

You can't give them improper odds to call unless you go all-in. If you just bet 800-1000 on the flop then they are getting the odds to call and even on the non-scary turn you only have 700-900 left so they are still getting the odds to call your all-in.

I wasn't advocating not going all-in because of the fact that you would get called if you were beaten, I was advocating it because of the fact that you need to maximize your money made from improperly played draws. However, in this case their play wouldn't be improper because of the overcards in addition to the flush outs.

...Interesting hand.

[HoldingFolding]

I actually like the check raise all in. OK, it may get checked around and someone may have the 10 (and obviously did given the title of the post), but I think there's a better chance that someone else alsohad a bit of a hand, providing their bet feels like a stab at the pot I think your c-r all in will scream 'TEN'. If you get called there's always: [ QUOTE ]
....hit a jack...perhaps.

[/ QUOTE ]

OT: I have found the c-r with air against aggressive big stacks to be my most successful chip earner in recent MTTs - though I'm not saying that applies here.

[allenciox]

I must say I HATE the check-raise all-in here. If everyone that called me has small pocket pairs or two big cards, it could easily get checked around. What do I then do if a Q,K,or A comes on the turn? If I bet here, I have a reasonable chance to get any draws out.

[fnurt]

The mistaken underlying assumption is that it's always possible to get away from a hand where you're behind. Fact is, the stacks are not nearly deep enough here to get away from JJ against QQ.

[dfan]

No one has recommended check-fold here. It would be hard to have the discipline to do, but I'm guessing it would be the most EV+ play.

I would estimate that in this particular situation (3bb raise called by two fairly tight players and a loose player in the second hour of a $150 buy-in MTT) one of the 3 calling hands will be holding TT -- AA 75% of the time. Low vpip players (<20) tend to play pretty tight at this point in the tournament unless they are short stacked or really big stacks.

The 14% vpip player will likely call your raise only with 99+ or AK. The 18% vpip player will see a raise and a call from a tight player in front of him, so he too is very likely to fold small pp's, AQ, etc. And while the 3rd loose caller's range would be pretty broad including AQ's, 77, etc, he just adds a bit more risk since he still may just happen to have a big hand or a T or 88 or a flush and straight draw. Put the three callers together and the prob none of them have a big pair or catch the flop is pretty low.

A stack of 1750 chips is OK at this point. If you really want to be aggressive (which I agree you should do) I say fold to a bet here, and then pick up your blind stealing as the blinds go up.

[dfan]

I am curious -- I estimated that in this particular situation (2nd hour or $150MTT, 50/100, ave. stack 2400t, 300t raise called by a tight player (14% vpip), a semi-tight player (18%), and a loose player (30%), the JJ will go down in flames 75% of the time even with a TdTs8s flop no matter how the hand is bet from the flop on.

What % would you experienced MTT'ers estimate the JJ will regret it if he continues betting this hand?

[JC_Saves]

If this was checked to you and you check and some aggressive player bets out behind you(which you expected anyway) and then one of the solid tight players calls this bet, then what are you going to do? Doesn't this signal that the solid player probably had a T?

I think that this is the most difficult hand to play when you have an overpair to a board with high cards, not so much with low cards, unless this is a limped pot, and then it applies there as well.

I think most of the time the push is the correct play here. If you are planning on betting, it is the only play that really makes sense.

If you check and the aggressive player raises behind you, then I would push all in and take my chances.

If you checked and aggressive player raised big and was called by one of the checkers, then I would muck it when it got to me, and then I would kick myself when the EP check/caller flips over 99 and wins the pot from the agressive player, or possibly thump my fist in the air when he flips over AT suited, or QQ.

Balancing all of these plays I would tend to push this flop.