When do you make your picks?

[Slacker13]

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Now why is that? Aren't you afraid that the line will move unfavorably for you in the final day? Or are you convinced that it's "public" movement and you'd do better betting against that move?

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I have been watching Don Best for 9-10 years and you really start to get a feel for moves. The line moves that happen in the last few minutes before kickoff are the "wiseguys", it's not the general public moving the line. Thats why i use a combination of local and offshore books, some of my local guys set their lines on Wed and don't move them, also I can late call my action to a few of them. I know an argument can and has been made that the real sharp bettors bet when the line opens, which is true but there are many sharp bettors that bet right at kickoff. From what I understand and have been going on for years is that when 5 or more casinos get hit with 100k or more on a single game that is when you get the major line move, it's the sharpies laying down major action at multiple casinos, thats who i like to jump on with.

I also play alot of middles. I said in a post last season that is why it is so important to have multiple books and a combo of offshore and locals. It's damn easy to bet middles when a guy doesn't move his line all week.

When I do bet games that I like, and maybe i liked this game all week long, I will still wait to just before kickoff because if the line moves against what i like then i won't bet it, it the line moves the way i like then i may put more on it. If the line stays the same then i will shop the line between my sportsbook and local BM.