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#1
10-26-2005, 12:37 PM
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Play the odds or play with your gut instinct?
Pretty much just making this post to prove a point to my friend that came over this weekend and shared a $20 MTT buyin with me. He wanted to play a game on Stars (his first online tourney ever). I said we'll split it and I'll let you play to get your feet wet. As I'm watching him I see that he's calling $400 bets after the turn into a $800 pot with a gutshot straight, and also see him calling a $1000 bet after the turn into a $2300 pot with a open ender. His reasons were, "you have to go with your gut!" I say no you play the odds. If you are getting 1.2-1 odds and you have a 5-1 shot of making it you cannot call! Then he called an all in after the turn with 9 10 of spades (called getting a little over 2-1) w/ 2 spades on the board and caught the flush and said, "see you have to trust your instincts." Tried to explain he'll go broke that way and wouldn't listen to me. I want to be able to send him this link to show him.
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#2
10-26-2005, 12:42 PM
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Re: Play the odds or play with your gut instinct?
(his first online tourney ever)
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#5
10-26-2005, 12:51 PM
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Re: Play the odds or play with your gut instinct?
If hes that good, he should consider becoming a professional blackjack player.
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#6
10-26-2005, 12:52 PM
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Re: Play the odds or play with your gut instinct?
on line tournamnents and live tournaments are not the same if for no other reason than you can play 40 of them in 1 day (assuming you are multi-tabling etc...). this player may think he is pretty good in brick & mortar play, but their is nothing like experience. on line poker brings you a LOT of experience.
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#7
10-26-2005, 12:52 PM
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Re: Play the odds or play with your gut instinct?
You know the answer to this.
We play poker because we believe in the laws of probability. The laws of probability are unproven but have ridiculous amounts of empirical data to back them up. If your friend's gut is correct often enough to make those calls profitable, he should be a rich man by now. It's really hard to actually accept probability, and therefore everyone expects specific cards to fall. Everyone is wrong, and probability is right.
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#8
10-26-2005, 12:54 PM
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Re: Play the odds or play with your gut instinct?
I don't know why I am even bothering with this but...
Don't go half-sies in any more tournaments with this guy. When you have T high and a flush draw, you call because the odds are correct, not to "go with your instincts". Obviously his Ten high was not good, and he caught to win. If he had called an all-in with Ten high and had the other guy dominated, well then, he's the best player in the world. Tell your friend that when he says he's: "going with his instincts" what he means is: "I have this magical feeling that the card I need is coming". Which of course is crazy, since in online poker, the next card coming off the deck hasn't even been determined until after you have made your decision. I wouldn't take pointers from this guy either.
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#10
10-26-2005, 12:57 PM
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Re: Play the odds or play with your gut instinct?
i like this response the best. ditto.
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