Callin all in with 99?

[NorthernGuy]

I agree with Strassa... I'm letting this one go. Likely that he has JJ, QQ or AK, unless you had been paying enough attention to see if he's been repopping others.

[Matador225]

Reluctantly I fold. Like a lot of people have already said, you see TT, JJ, and QQ way too often. I would need a read to make the call and since you don't know anything abou his play I think your a pretty big dog against his likely range.

[schwza]

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The bet all in by the guy does not look like AA-KK to me

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ah, the old put him on what you want him to have play.

do you really think AA/KK smoothcalls there that often? i know i'm happy to move in on a utg raiser with a big pair when he's getting 1.75:1.

[schwza]

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Fold.

It seems like a spot where the vast majority of the time you are coinflipping or are a big dog. You are going to see JJ and up here way too often IMO.

-Jason

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with this much of your money in the middle, it's almost as bad to pass up a flip as it is to call a pair. that said, i think that there's a pretty good chance that villain is folding 88/AQ to your initial raise, so that would you don't have the odds. also, this is a spot where i'm ok with giving up a little cEV to survive.

i would be opening to 5.2k with a plan of folding to a push from a bigger stack. i really doubt you're going to induce big stacks to play over you very much more by making a smaller raise, and you get to save some chips when they do.

[DonT77]

Looks like you'll have to call 27373 to win 45573 if my math is right. That means you'll need to win at least 37.5% of the time for the call to be +cEV.

99 is 38.3% against 88+/AQs/AKo, but if you take out 88 - then the play becomes -cEV all the way down to 33.2%. So you gotta ask yourself - is 88 in the guy's range, if you're not sure then I think it's a fold because you'll be calling all-in on a nearly neutral EV situation.

[zambonidrivr]

I fold, unless I have a solid read. Need to win a couple of these to win...

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
Looks like you'll have to call 27373 to win 45573 if my math is right. That means you'll need to win at least 37.5% of the time for the call to be +cEV.

99 is 38.3% against 88+/AQs/AKo, but if you take out 88 - then the play becomes -cEV all the way down to 33.2%. So you gotta ask yourself - is 88 in the guy's range, if you're not sure then I think it's a fold because you'll be calling all-in on a nearly neutral EV situation.

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what's tricky is estimating the chance that villain is playing back because op has been opening a lot of pots (i assume he has) or is just a total donk and has something like 75s/A7s/44. obviously the odds are not very high, but they're not zero. in spots like this i sometimes open up the hh and scan back to find a pot where villain won or lost a lot of chips and see if anything abnormal happened.

fwiw, i think the key to the hand is guessing correctly whether villain will push AQ. i probably would if i were him, but i don't think it's common enough to count on.

[Roman]

I fold this, many players dont push here with AQ, seems like you are dominated too often. I understand that varying your pf raises must be important to you, but this is not the right time to do it, the big raise is uncharacteristic of a big pair and has the additional misfortune of almost commiting you to the pot. So yea, I would raise a normal amount and fold to a push.

[woodguy]

Given that you are left w/ 13.5 BB's (although the blinds are next door), probably fold.

With no antes, 13.5 is a workable stack at Party, and barring a read you are a dog to the range, and not quite getting the right price.

I think you can get your $$$ in better.

I know you mix it up with the PF raises, but this is why I'm usually raising 2.5BB's in this spot, as it doesn't tie me to the pot if something like this happens behind me.

Regards,
Woodguy

[Jason Strasser]

I could be wrong, but my gut says that a call here is -cEV. I'm not exacltly sure what range this would imply for the reraiser, but my gut says that its going to often be strong enough to warrant a fold