Value Betting

Ryan11 · #1 11-14-2005, 03:22 PM

I am trying to improve on value betting rivers. Here are a few hands where I would like some input.

Hand1:

Only 2 orbits with Villian but he is 22/5 and doesn't seem to be all that aggressive.

Paradise Poker 8/16 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, 2 folds, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero raises, MP3 folds, Button folds, BB folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (7.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls.

River: (9.25 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 9.25 BB

Hand2:

Villian is 23/9/1 I really don't see that A helping him here, so I guess I should bet this river

Paradise Poker 10/20 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, MP1 calls, 1 fold, CO calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 bets, MP1 calls, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, CO folds.

Turn: (9.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP1 calls.

River: (11.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks.

Final Pot: 11.50 BB

Hand3:

Villian is 48/12.5/2.17 with 4.25 Turn, 3.5 river.

Paradise Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG raises, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, 5 folds, UTG caps, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13.40 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG bets, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, UTG 3-bets, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (10.20 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: (10.20 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 10.20 BB

flopmonster · #2 11-14-2005, 03:28 PM

Hand 1 is the worst and its pretty weak tight that you didnt bet. Hand 2 is a little tougher but still a clear bet, and hand 3 I think I would just check as well.

peterchi · #3 11-14-2005, 03:44 PM

Hand 1: If he had you beat, he'd have said something a little louder. And he'll probably call you with just an 8. I bet.

Hand 2: Were you trying to induce a bluff? I agree that the ace probably didn't help him. Interesting flop play by the way.

Hand 3: I think I agree with every street.

hobbsmann · #4 11-14-2005, 03:44 PM

Hand 1: bet because you have the best hand and villain will call with an 8.

Hand 2: f'ing 3-bet preflop. As played bet the river.

Hand 3: I don't like the flop raise. Good check, I doubt you have the best hand very often.

brettbrettr · #5 11-14-2005, 03:45 PM

hands 1 and 2 seem like bets to me. I'm not wild about betting the third one.

Ryan11 · #6 11-14-2005, 04:04 PM

My only reason for concern on the 3rd hand is the villians AF for the turn and river. It is pretty high for him not to be betting a K or Q here I think.

hobbsmann · #7 11-14-2005, 04:07 PM

how many hands are those stats through?

W. Deranged · #8 11-14-2005, 04:45 PM

Hand #1: Villain's ranged is filled with stuff like 66, 99, and 98s. The things I'd be most worried about villain having, like A7 and A8, don't seem likely because of the lack of aggression on the turn. He's pretty unlikely to have hit the A, therefore, especially considering the flop did not contain a flush draw so he's not betting out with something like A3s and for the nut draw. JJ is not a concern as 5% VPIP is not low enough for villain to be regularly limping JJ.

So Hand #1 is a bet.

Hand #2: Check-raise is pretty good. (I think it should be noted that three-betting here out of the small blind is not obvious and calling can't be that bad, as three-betting likely gets the hand four-handed, bloats the pot, and forces you to take the initiative out-of-position, whereas five-handed you will be better able to protect your hand and you have better odds to flop a set).

Since the only player who stayed with you was a super passive cold-calling type, and all the natural aggressors got out of there, I think we'll see something like 87s or maybe T9s or something pretty regularly. The A really only hit A9, as there's no flush draw or anything that would merit villain hanging around for so many bets.

The concern on this hand is more that villain is just pretty unlikely to have anything than that he might have a better hand. I think you're winning the vast majority of the time, but I also think villain is folding a ton of the time as well. But, 88, TT, T9s and so on will probably call so you should bet.

So Hand #2 is a bet.

Hand #3: Villain's river aggression is so high here that villain is probably check-folding pretty often here, check-raising pretty often here, and check-calling very rarely here. He seems likely to want to have bet a hand like AQ or whatever here, but his two checks just seem so odd that I don't want to bet here. He also may be a player capable of check-raise-bluffing here, and, since you really can't call a raise, I don't want to put in a bet and open myself up to losing the pot that way.

So Hand #3 is a check.

Ryan11 · #9 11-14-2005, 04:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
how many hands are those stats through?

[/ QUOTE ]

pretty small sample. . around 70 hands

Ryan11 · #10 11-14-2005, 04:54 PM

Very good analysis .. thanx a lot deranged.