%of Time Tonights World Series Ends in a One run game???

[whipsaw]

For what it's worth, I do occasionally make this type of play taking the dog ML and the fav RL. I usually like to have a spread of at least 100-120 points before I even consider it (e.g. +150 dog ML and +165 fav RL). This game has a spread of 90-95, which in my opinion is a -EV play. Given more time, I could give better reasons why I think in some cases this is a +EV play.