Making him fold a better hand

Saborion · #1 12-03-2005, 11:26 AM

UTG is 23/11/2.1 and has a WSD/W$SD of 29/53 over 1070 hands.
MP is a loose, mostly passive player, both pre- and postflop.

First of all, how do we best play the flop against a player with UTG's stats? Any merit to check-raising him and taking advantage of the information a 3-bet from him will give us (because of his AF and the pot being 3-way), perhaps making us fold the turn unimproved? Or is that just wrong?

Secondly, can we use the turned ace to perhaps make UTG fold a better hand, and if so, how? Must not forget that there's a third player involved in the hand that can hold just about any kind of hand at this point.

And finally, if we can't take advantage of the ace to make UTG fold a better hand how should we proceed?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG raises, MP calls, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, UTG caps, MP calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG raises, MP calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (9.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)

Wynton · #2 12-03-2005, 11:48 AM

I don't think you can get UTG to fold a better hand, or at least it's not likely enough to try. If he's got QQ, KK or any A, he's almost certainly going to show-down.

I think I would have 3-bet the flop here and then revaluated based on whether it was capped or not, and whether MP was still in the hand.

kapw7 · #3 12-03-2005, 03:44 PM

3-bet the flop. Your hand is strong but vulnerable to overcards. It's possible to try and make him fold QQ or KK but not likely as the pot is big and you have MP that can have an ace, ten or will outdraw you on the river.

However definitely go for a bet. UTG will be under a lot of pressure b/c of the ace and his bad position.

bobhalford · #4 12-03-2005, 04:22 PM

One line is to check raise the turn and fold to a 3-bet. Not saying I would do that, might be too fancy a play. You would be forced to bet the river if he calls the turn raise.

I would probably bet/fold the turn here.

Saborion · #5 12-04-2005, 12:09 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you can get UTG to fold a better hand, or at least it's not likely enough to try. If he's got QQ, KK or any A, he's almost certainly going to show-down.

[/ QUOTE ]
I doubt he'd ever fold an ace, but I also don't think that's his most likely hand based on the preflop and flop action. The reason I asked is because of his low WSD. If I can't get someone with that low WSD to fold then clearly it's virtually impossible to get someone to fold KK/QQ here. I used to be weak postflop, and my WSD was around 29-30 %. All I remember is that I *could* fould KK/QQ here if I was up against a blind playing his hand like that.

[ QUOTE ]
I think I would have 3-bet the flop here and then revaluated based on whether it was capped or not, and whether MP was still in the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
You think someone with a 11 % PFR and 2.1 AF will cap 99/AK/AQ/AJ/KQs etc UTG in a 3-way pot and then raise the flop so often that we may be ahead here? I'm still learning, but I'd like to think that 99 is very unlikely, and so is AQ/AJ/KQs as well, based both on the preflop and the flop action. Please straighten my thinking and hand reading.

Saborion · #6 12-04-2005, 12:13 AM

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3-bet the flop. Your hand is strong but vulnerable to overcards.

[/ QUOTE ]
Is my hand really strong based on the action so far? And how will 3-betting protect my hand from overcards? 3-betting would only serve two purposes here:
1) extract bets when we're ahead, which is very nice, but are we ahead often enough?
2) gain information so that we can fold our hand

[ QUOTE ]

However definitely go for a bet. UTG will be under a lot of pressure b/c of the ace and his bad position.

[/ QUOTE ]
What about a check-raise? That way we'll get to see what the MP decides to do, and it would put even bigger pressure on UTG since we've played our hand just like an AK?

Saborion · #7 12-04-2005, 12:16 AM

So I check the turn, UTG bets, MP folds, I check-raise, UTG 3-bets and I fold.

meep_42 · #8 12-04-2005, 12:19 AM

Is a flop bet here mandatory? Or even +EV?
Seems like a prime example of the "Two Overpair Hands" in SSH, to me. When the Ace hits, I think I take WA/WB. The way you played it, I'd check-fold the turn - he's showing down most of the time he doesn't have an ace, and he's beating you with an ace much of the time.

-d

Saborion · #9 12-04-2005, 12:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Is a flop bet here mandatory? Or even +EV?

[/ QUOTE ]
If I put the guy on such a narrow range of hands, no it's certainly not mandatory, or even +EV. But I tend to put people on to narrow hand ranges so I bet in case he has overs.

By the tone of your post it sounds as though you don't consider a flop bet +EV, which is interesting since most people that have responded so far said that I should 3-bet the flop. If the flop bet isn't +EV, then the 3-bet should be very -EV.

All that being said, I'm not sure the flop bet isn't +EV since, despite his low PFR, he may know that the MP dude is loose and cap more lightly. Maybe 11 % PFR's do cap AK/AQ etc preflop in a 3-way pot, or maybe his emotional state of mind made him play a bit more aggro than usual.

So, how often do you think this particular player has 2 overs or a pair of 9's after his flop raise?

meep_42 · #10 12-04-2005, 01:41 AM

I was adding it more for conjecture than anything else. I don't think a flop 3-bet is the right play here, though, because you can't protect your hand and you're either slightly ahead or way behind (in that there are about 20 scare cards on the turn but only 2 solid ones).

I'm starting to think that with a 11 PFR, though, he's generally not going to be capping too light, say with 9s or AJ or less. He's almost always betting this flop (with a PF cap and Tot-A of 2+) if you check, so a free card isn't an issue. However, he won't always protect your hand for you with AQ/AK, so you're only forcing out the middle-man (and in a good situation) when:
a) he raises with AK/AQ
b) Middle man will fold the flop for 2 bets but not 1.

Together, i'm not sure they happen that often.

So, upon looking at this, I'm leaning towards a check-call on the flop.

If I did bet-call (as I think I would when I don't have minutes to think about it), i'd seriously consider donking the half the deck that's good.

-d