Party Poker Bad Beat Jackpot Analysis

With the Party BBJ around $600K, I spent a little time and modified my simulator to count hands that would qualify for the BBJ. Here are the results after a few billion hands:

Overall chance of BBJ: One per 192K hands

The breakdown of BBJ hands is:
SF over SF : 24%
SF over Quads: 55%
Quads over Quads: 21%

These numbers assume no folds of the 2 hands involved. Looking at the actual hands, I think slightly more than 50% of the SF hands would be folded preflop (or even on the flop), so I'd guess the BBJ will hit around once per 350-400K hands on average.

If the BBJ hit frequency is indeed once per 400K hands, that would mean the BBJ would be hit every ~$120-140K on average, since each raked hand contributes 0.50 to the BBJ, and assuming 60-70% of hands raked. So the current BBJ will probably be hit before it gets to $800K.

Anyone else made an estimate of the BBJ frequency?


My code attempts to follow the party rules (quads >= 8s, both hole cards used, etc.), but could have bugs of course.

(I suppose this post might belong in probability or software, but who has time to read those while 10-tabling?) [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[ZZZ]

Quad hands will be folded too. 85o can win the jackpot by making quad 8s.

ZZZ

[cookie]

[ QUOTE ]
Quad hands will be folded too. 85o can win the jackpot by making quad 8s.

ZZZ

[/ QUOTE ]
Are you sure?

Im pretty sure u have to use both holecards

[J_B]

[ QUOTE ]
Quad hands will be folded too. 85o can win the jackpot by making quad 8s.

ZZZ

[/ QUOTE ]

85o can on a 88854 board.

[boedeker]

yeah have to use both cards.

[MicroBob]

exactly

I have 85o

board is 88843

both my hole-cards play.

[scotty34]

[ QUOTE ]
exactly

I have 85o

board is 88843

both my hole-cards play.

[/ QUOTE ]

At the casino where I play live, kickers don't count for a BBJ hand (it also only has to be Aces full of Tens beaten). I don't if Party's rule is different or not.

[cookie]

[ QUOTE ]
exactly

I have 85o

board is 88843

both my hole-cards play.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thx, now I get it [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[Arnfinn Madsen]

[ QUOTE ]
exactly

I have 85o

board is 88843

both my hole-cards play.

[/ QUOTE ]

But how can you then beat quads or be beaten by quads? Just nitting around [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]. Leave an opening for a straight flush 88854 (854 of same suit).

[Tapin]

[ QUOTE ]
exactly

I have 85o

board is 88843

both my hole-cards play.

[/ QUOTE ]
Both hole cards play, but there's no other qualifying hand -- no straight flush possibilities, that is.

Far as I can tell, 85o can't win it, but 86o could.