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  #1  
Old 10-01-2005, 05:02 AM
testaaja testaaja is offline
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Default Stocks up/down short term

I have really been into investing lately. What I find hard is to determine how a stock will move in a day or week. I know a stock, big industry (not all [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img])will probably go up in a month? year? but day I don't know.
So what I am asking is how do you do determine if a stock is going down or up in short term? Thanks.

Edit: ofcourse if there is more buyers than sellers the price will rise. What about news? Do they really affect that much?
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  #2  
Old 10-05-2005, 12:41 AM
squiffy squiffy is offline
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Default Re: Stocks up/down short term

read Stocks for the Long Run by Siegel
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  #3  
Old 10-05-2005, 12:49 AM
Ray Zee Ray Zee is offline
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Default Re: Stocks up/down short term

nobody can determine if stocks are going up or down in the short term. if they could there would be little money left in the world for the rest of us.
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Old 10-05-2005, 01:59 AM
Mark Heide Mark Heide is offline
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Default Re: Stocks up/down short term

Ray,

I agree with what you say. The only exception is if you have insider information.
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  #5  
Old 10-05-2005, 02:00 AM
JTrout JTrout is offline
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Default Re: Stocks up/down short term

In the immortal words of Peter Lynch:
(or at least close to the immortal words of Peter Lynch [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img])

"I can't tell you if the market will hit 12,000 before it hits 8,000.
But I can guarantee you it will hit 20,000 before it hits zero."
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  #6  
Old 10-05-2005, 03:13 AM
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Default Re: Stocks up/down short term

I recommend you use intraday charts and technical analysis to trade short-term moves.

There are many styles and techniques/strategies that work. I am a fan of simpler stuff that focuses on understanding markets and price moves, not understanding how to best calibrate an oscillator.

I recommend John Murphy's TA of Fin. Markets book for beginners. Disregard his hand picked charts that conveniently "work," but understand concepts.

Other ways to make +EV short term trades include predictive methods such as cycles(many physicists take this route), arbitrage methods such as pair trading(looking at the relative prices and seeing when they get out of line), other arbitrage methods such as m&a, playing news releases, trying to play games with the specialist(NYSE) and put on opening only orders, tape reading, or developing an automated trading strategy.

There are so many ways to approach the market because it is so complex. So it's tough to find your way out there. A lot of the books/seminars(think forex made easy or optionetics) out there on "trading" are snake oil and really make it harder to think for yourself and figure out how to make money. These guys sell dreams to the fish who go in to the markets and get ripped up.

In the end, even if a profitable discretionary trader told you all the details of their strategy and how they make money, it's unlikely you would be able to execute it right off the bat. Having an edge is a start, but in the end most of this game is mental.
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  #7  
Old 10-05-2005, 08:31 AM
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Default Re: Stocks up/down short term

there are a lot of factors which can move it in the short term....things to look out for, are earnings coming up, is it a time of yr when its sector moves, is there important date coming up(vote, decision on a contract) and most importantly the charts.
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  #8  
Old 10-05-2005, 10:56 AM
Sniper Sniper is offline
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Default Re: Stocks up/down short term

[ QUOTE ]
nobody can determine if stocks are going up or down in the short term. if they could there would be little money left in the world for the rest of us.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nobody can determine if stocks are going up or down in the short term... with absolute certainty, but you can take steps to put the odds in your favor, and maximize your gains when you are right, and minimize your losses when you are wrong!
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  #9  
Old 10-05-2005, 03:57 PM
goodguy_1 goodguy_1 is offline
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Default Re: Stocks up/down short term

SPY-breaking down has broken the 50 day and 200 day moving average in the last week. Today is a very nasty day. Russell 2000 down 3% Nazdog down 1.50%. Question is -is this just seaonal weakness or more than that-will the economy slow from all the hits its taken over the last half year. Bond yeilds are not tanking either like they have in the past when the market has gone down which bouyed the market in past small corrections. Also in the last 2 weeks smart money has been buying defensive stocks.ie drugs and consumer stocks-all signs of a slowdown in the economy.
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  #10  
Old 10-05-2005, 04:03 PM
goodguy_1 goodguy_1 is offline
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Default Re: Stocks up/down short term

Put your money in index funds unless you are experienced.

Learning how to trade for a living takes years not days or a book or two.
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