KK hand - am I weak or goot?

[LuvDemNutz]

Villain was vpip 29.5 but pfr only 2.5 over 1400 hands.

Party Poker Pot-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter

MP3 ($1024.6)
CO ($0)
Button ($595.4)
SB ($805.76)
BB ($602.25)
UTG ($394.2)
UTG+1 ($764.59)
MP1 ($923.9)
Hero ($610.95)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $3.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $15</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $40</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, UTG calls $25.

Flop: ($89) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $50</font>, UTG calls $50.

Turn: ($189) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: ($189) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $186</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $375

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
UTG doesn't show.
CO doesn't show.
Outcome: UTG wins $282. CO wins $93. </font>

[DrGutshot]

I am not a NL player...but.....what were you thinking here??

I much prefer betting the turn and folding to a big raise than checking planning on folding to a bet. I could easily see someone putting you on AK and bluffing you out/"value"betting QT or something.

-DrG

[partygirluk]

[ QUOTE ]
I am not a NL player...but.....what were you thinking here??

I much prefer betting the turn and folding to a big raise than checking planning on folding to a bet. I could easily see someone putting you on AK and bluffing you out/"value"betting QT or something.

-DrG

[/ QUOTE ]

The described villain is not raising PF with QT.

[imperious]

UTG must have QQ/JJ. I would check the turn also and wait to see what he does on the river. When he moves in it's an easy laydown.
Not really a lot you could have done about it most other lines you could have taken would end up losing you more anyway.

[dark_avenger]

i disagree. i think you have to bet the turn here, because if the turn goes check check, and then he bets on the river, you don't really know where you are. A good player would try to steal on this river a lot of the time sensing weakness on the turn, and while his pfr is quite low, is aj really out of the question here? a vpip of 29.5 is pretty loose. My line here is to bet the turn, and fold to a check-raise, or if he just calls, bet the river

[LuvDemNutz]

[ QUOTE ]
i disagree. i think you have to bet the turn here, because if the turn goes check check, and then he bets on the river, you don't really know where you are. A good player would try to steal on this river a lot of the time sensing weakness on the turn, and while his pfr is quite low, is aj really out of the question here? a vpip of 29.5 is pretty loose. My line here is to bet the turn, and fold to a check-raise, or if he just calls, bet the river

[/ QUOTE ]

2.5 PFR is low AND he raised from UTG -

it's not as if he raised from the button.

[freemoney]

how could you bet the turn and fold to a raise? say you make it 150 into a 186 pot, now you are gonna fold for 150 into an 800 pot? i dont like that line at all. i dont hate hero's line, 2.5 pfr over 1400 hands and a raise UTG is a pretty big indicator, this is the type of player this laydown is possible

[imperious]

[ QUOTE ]
i think you have to bet the turn here, because if the turn goes check check, and then he bets on the river, you don't really know where you are

[/ QUOTE ]

It depends on what the river card is and how much the bet is. The way the hand was played, I know exactly where I am and I can't see anything other than JJ/QQ, just based on the pf action - let alone the move on the river which is IMO much more likely to be QQ/JJ than a missed draw/stone bluff.

[ QUOTE ]
is aj really out of the question here

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO yes, as is QT.

[DrGutshot]

yeah, totally missed that thanks. This makes the play much more understandable.

/slaps self.

-DrG