$50 PLO8 hand

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6s Ad 2d Th 10459 20527 77753 0 38431 26752 4592 0.329
Qs Js 4h 2h 2934 8476 87670 2134 13809 36696 3632 0.132
Ks Qd Ah 3h 4884 13276 84067 937 13809 36696 3632 0.167
4s 8c 3d 7h 4652 27957 69879 444 7679 67809 2672 0.203
Tc 9c Jd Qh 3425 9030 82342 6908 0 0 0 0.084
Ts Kc Qc Jh 1213 11041 79710 7529 0 0 0 0.085

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LOL Felicia - did you deliberately choose hands that overlapped each other, had not a single pair, no other A2, and only two diamonds out of 20 cards? Funny stuff. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Let's make this a bit more realistic - the expected number of diamonds, the expected number of aces, a single pair of 10s, and an A2. 40 cards have been dealt out...flush cards, low hands, aces and pairs are selected for. This is a completely realistic average case scenario, not best case. I haven't even included any big hands or even A23:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1414504
6s Ad 2d Th 2610 11923 86252 105 1959 17154 39235 0.183
Qs Js 4h 2h 5489 11344 85110 1826 8111 33147 900 0.124
2s Qd Ah 5h 4094 9975 87375 930 9109 11844 39235 0.214
4s 8c 7d 3d 7152 28229 69988 63 5900 51616 432 0.204
Tc 5c Td Qh 8980 15164 83057 59 0 0 0 0.123
Ac Kc Qc Jd 8998 18948 76803 2529 0 0 0 0.153

Oops, where did our equity go? I agree that you do have a small equity edge preflop, but this hand is completely unplayable postflop except on a small number of flops. When money is going in, it will mostly be a money loser as it will rarely be a nut hand. Compare A29T or A266 with A26T for the chances of flopping a high equity hand, and the problem with this hand might become clearer (even though preflop equity doesn't change that much). Preflop to river equity doesn't give the whole story here.

Next step when I get time: add up the number of favorable flops six handed and work out how often we flop a decent, PLAYABLE hand that can make money (unless Buzz wants to do it for me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] )

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You have a hand that's likely the best, and is still likely to be good on the turn.

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Any A,2,7,8,9,T,J or club makes a potentially better hand for high or low. Only 3,4,5,6,Q,K without clubs leave you in this position.

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That's just monster think. I agree the hand is vulnerable, but the only killer cards are A,2, maybe a ten, or a club. The others are a matter of probability, and more often than not a 7,8,9 won't give a full house, and a J or T won't give a higher straight. The only way all those cards are dangerous is if someone has a set or top two, another has bottom two, AND another has QJ, AND yet another has QT. So on the balance of probabilities, if your hand is good already, it's still very likely to be good on the turn.

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what is your plan on the turn if a non-low, non-club hits (i.e most of the deck), esp. since most sane people with the nut straight and no redraws here are not going to war on that flop?

-g

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Well, OP has a short stack. So if he had raised max PF and then potted it on the flop, he's nearly all-in (with OP's short stack) or at the very least easily committed. So in that case, no matter what turn card comes, he'd be best served by shoving whatever he has left.

If the same PF raise and flop max-bet transpired but stacks were deep, so that hero & villains weren't committed, then if it checks to me, I would check behind (or consider folding to an EP pot-sized bet) on a T, J, or board pair, but would pot it again on a Q or K (it would be difficult to believe somebody's going to check the nut str twice on a board like that). If somebody from EP bets on a Q or K, I would probably call.

Given the way it was played, limped PF and just called on the flop, any bad turn card is an easy check-behind.

[FeliciaLee]

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LOL Felicia - did you deliberately choose hands that overlapped each other, had not a single pair, no other A2, and only two diamonds out of 20 cards? Funny stuff.

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No. I wish I could say I was being cute or clever. The plain truth is, however, that I simply can't think and process the way I used to. I have a hard time telling ranks and suits apart. I had a difficult enough time just making six, unduplicated hands, much less try to put any kind of real action into them. Sure, I knew I was giving them subpar hands, but that is about all I could process at the time. Sorry [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

I did, however, purposely leave out any other suited ace with A2. Because in my limited experience in the $50 PLO8, these hands are usually raised pre-flop.

Not if you're playing me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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I had a difficult enough time just making six, unduplicated hands, much less try to put any kind of real action into them.

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Me too. Just changing a few cards in your list kept getting me that annoying red message in twodimes:

<font color="red">error: duplicate card Ks</font>

Really [censored] annoying!

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that is about all I could process at the time. Sorry

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Don't sweat it Felicia, you give quality responses and I wouldn't have considered a bad A2 had that much equity without your post. And please don't apologise when you give better responses than most of the people on this site. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[jthegreat]

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6s Ad 2d Th 2610 11923 86252 105 1959 17154 39235 0.183
Qs Js 4h 2h 5489 11344 85110 1826 8111 33147 900 0.124
2s Qd Ah 5h 4094 9975 87375 930 9109 11844 39235 0.214
4s 8c 7d 3d 7152 28229 69988 63 5900 51616 432 0.204
Tc 5c Td Qh 8980 15164 83057 59 0 0 0 0.123
Ac Kc Qc Jd 8998 18948 76803 2529 0 0 0 0.153

Oops, where did our equity go? I agree that you do have a small equity edge preflop, but this hand is completely unplayable postflop except on a small number of flops.

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You're still wrong.

It doesn't matter if you only continue past the flop on a small number of flops. What matters is how much you make on those hands that you do.