AA against TAG

[Spicymoose]

Damn, can't believe I missed KQ, KJ, KT. I still don't think they are all that likely, but definetly possible (each one less likely than the previous though).

Which set do you think he has? 22 is possible, but 99 is much less likely since he didn't 3-bet. I guess not everyone 3-bets 99 here, but a lot do. 88 and KK seem extremely unlikely.

I think you should call but might raise the river if the board pairs. Im uncertain about that though since I havent done any calculations.

[Spicymoose]

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I think you should call but might raise the river if the board pairs. Im uncertain about that though since I havent done any calculations.

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Oh, this is starting to make more sense now. I guess krishan was asking if we should fold here? If this is the case, we definetly cannot fold the turn, as we only need 3 outs. A's are definetly clean, and we have a bit more than 1 hidden out, although we don't know which one it is. Folding the river UI would be hard for me though, so I probably just call since the pot is huge at that point.

[luckyharr]

I guess he could have K9 or K8s. Is he too tight to call those out of the BB preflop? If he had 98s, check raising the flop would have been much better than leading. 99 seems possible since he might not have liked 3 betting preflop with 5 players in the hand. 22 is very possible. Not capping the flop is suspect with the set hands but maybe he wanted to make sure MP and UTG call one more with hands that are likely drawing thin. KQ/KJ seem like strong possibilities.

I would call because he's Taggy and therefore likely observant. You three-bet after a bet, a raise, and a cold call on a K high flop which announced to everyone that you have KQ, AK or Aces since there is no apparent draw. Yes, he has KQ here sometimes but the set hands seem more likely the way he played it.

[krishanleong]

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I think you should call but might raise the river if the board pairs. Im uncertain about that though since I havent done any calculations.

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Oh, this is starting to make more sense now. I guess krishan was asking if we should fold here?

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Usually it's better to ask openended questions. You get more interesting/varied responses that way. That said the decision going through my mind was raise or call.

Krishan

[ggbman]

Call the turn and raise a blank river, and plan to fold to a 3 bet. This accomplishes 2 things. You keep MP in with weak kings, and bad players never fold this river when you raise with top pair. Also, if the BB has you beat with a two pair hand like 89 or K8, he will be less likely to 3 bet the river than the turn IMO. This doesnt make sense to a lot of people, but i just find many players are more likely to go lots of bets on the turn with 2 pair when raised than the river. If MP folds the river, then just call because a lot of the value of raising is trapping him when we are pretty sure we have him beat.

Just call down.

Raise an A, 2, 8 or 9 on the river assuming nothing stupid happens from MP.

[Spicymoose]

Although I know you are a great player, and probably right, I still have to disagree. Make a reasonable hand range for villain, and I think ew are behind way too often. We will also get 3-bet on the river by at least a decent portion of his hands, and we will be losing even if we don't get 3-bet a lot. Just do some combo weighting based on what you think he might have.