I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River

[BottlesOf]

but is your equity in a spot where you want 1 or 2 calls on that turn? I'm talking about if you only have the flush draw, b/c you implied that the sb would be the type to check the fd there, and it seemed like this would be really bad.

[luckyharr]

[ QUOTE ]
I think we are ahead more than 33% of the time....I'd be willing to say that we are ahead of him more than 39% of the time. The amount that we would need if we were 85% of the time ahead of button.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure that 33% is the number we need in order to cap for value. 33% assumes that the button will always call your cap and also assumes that you are never chopping the pot.

OK guys......

Here's what I was thinking.

A flop raise is only good when the pot is bloated preflop by a raise and some calls. The fact that this pot was unraised preflop and has only 3SB going to the flop makes a flop raise absolutely horrendous. Why attempt to shut out the button? Fast playing is much better when someone indicates they have a strong holding (as in raised PF).

The turn bet/check can go either way. Checking is not terrible like everyone says. There are a few underlying factors:

1. I felt the button would bet the turn ~50% of the time (some portion of that because he hit a queen and some portion to take a stab at it). I know that if button bets the turn, SB will almost always call. Trapping both of them for a double bet makes for a HUGE reward to my risk.

2. There's very little chance that a free card will hurt me on a whiff. The pot is small, so I don't mind calling only one bet or folding on the river to significant action if a flush card hits.

3. By not defining my hand on the turn, it encourages them to take river shots. I'm aware that my hand doesn't look like trips by the river and will adjust accordingly.

Keep in mind that #2 and #3 only exist if the button checks.

In this hand, I called 2 more on the river and the loose button FOLDED!!

I'm not yet supplying the remainder of results in order to generate further discussion.

[I am fish]

Don't post the results. I don't think that's healthy.

[ QUOTE ]
Don't post the results. I don't think that's healthy.

[/ QUOTE ]
Can I post them somewhere else on the internet and then create a very difficult scavenger hunt so only the people who are really interested can find them?

[I am fish]

Ha!.. you know my point though. Nice thread by the way.

[oreogod]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't post the results. I don't think that's healthy.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is one hand where curiosity is perked enough that he would should eventually post them or at least say whether he won or not. Not only would ppl now appreciate it, but Im sure ppl eventually reading this in the archives would as well. (which is kind of irrating, reading a post in the archives and u really want to know what happened at showdown or after turn action and its never followed up on. Christ thats annoying.)

I intend on posting results, but there's still some discussion left.

About the river call...

Half the posters say easy call, the other half say easy fold. I guess it's not that easy.

[gila]

Correct me if these numbers are wrong (i'm pretty sure some are since I was up all night researching office chairs), but, at any rate.

The SB's holdings:

Hands that beat you: 77 three ways, 75 three ways, k5 three ways, q5 three ways, and a5 four ways (Not counting KK or QQ which I am assuming he doesn't have). So, that's 16 hand combinations he could have that you lose to assumming he does not have a high pocket pair.

Now you have to figure what hands he would 3-bet here (if any) that you would beat. Again, lets assume he does not have pocket aces. Would he 3-bet kq, k7, and ak? If so, then that is 12 ak's, 9 kq's and 9 k7's.

If he 3-bets all these hands that is 30 combinations you beat vs. 16 that beat you (and of course we are not even considering the hands that would tie yet).

So, easy call here if he would 3-bet these. What if he would only 3-bet the kq and k7. You still have 18 wins vs. 16 losses and still have a fairly easy call.

If he only 3-bets the kq then you become a 16-9 dog (again, we are throwing out the ties for now) to have the best hand but still have a call getting 4.5-1 odds.

So, the way I see it, the only way you have a fold is if you think the sb will NOT 3- bet the kq or worse. And if that is the case you will need to caculate the number of wins vs. losses. vs. ties and see how that stacks against the pot odds. Which, in this small pot, would probably make it a fold.

So, what I think this hand comes down to, is: will the sb 3-bet kq or worse in this spot? If yes, call, if no, fold.

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]

The turn bet/check can go either way. Checking is not terrible like everyone says. There are a few underlying factors:

1. I felt the button would bet the turn ~50% of the time (some portion of that because he hit a queen and some portion to take a stab at it). I know that if button bets the turn, SB will almost always call. Trapping both of them for a double bet makes for a HUGE reward to my risk.

2. There's very little chance that a free card will hurt me on a whiff. The pot is small, so I don't mind calling only one bet or folding on the river to significant action if a flush card hits.

3. By not defining my hand on the turn, it encourages them to take river shots. I'm aware that my hand doesn't look like trips by the river and will adjust accordingly.


[/ QUOTE ]

Hey House,

I like your analysis. I have a few comments:

1. Where did you get this 50% number from? That's a very high %age for him to have a queen or "take a stab." Realistically I think this # is gonig to be much lower.
What's very important here is the 2nd part of this statement:
[ QUOTE ]
Trapping both of them for a double bet makes for a HUGE reward to my risk.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you've really overestimated A) the amount of time button bets B) the amount of time either of them has a hand that can call a c/r. A pot-protected c/r in this tiny pot screams trips. Betting helps disguise your hand and may get you raised by a Q now or by a hand that improves on the river.

2. Good pont. Small pots like this you want to win more bets, not win the pot.

3. I'm not sure how much this is a factor. you only fail to define your hand when it checks through - your hand is painfully obvious when you c/r. When you bet, your hand is still undefined(as to its true strength) whether you get raised or called.

Surf