AQs, I double donk bet - what do you think?

[DeathDonkey]

I kind of like this actually. Depending on his level of LAG its probably a river 3 bet. He is much more likely to have an ace or aces up then a set.

-DeathDonkey

[ellipse_87]

[grunch]

On the flop, I have MP getting 6-1 pot odds after your 3-bet, + implied odds. So, no, draws will not be folding. But they are draws, not made hands, and we have TPGK, so a lot of value is squandered by not betting. We're only behind to A9/A6 or a set.

There's nothing on the turn to make an aggressive-leaning button slow down with Ax, or even TT or K9, for that matter, so there's no reason not to raise here either. If he or MP 3-bet, then it's a different story.

The river call is an abomination which screams to the heavens for retribution [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img], especially since MP folded to your bet. Only a set, T8, 85 beat you. Aces up or even top pair will often be calling here.

[bozlax]

Having READ THE REST OF THE THREAD, now, I'm going to amend my answer. I was thinking this originally, then changed, now I'm changing back.

3-bet the flop. Since Villan didn't raise pf, I feel confident that you have best hand on the flop when it's one back to you (which hasn't changed from my original response). If you 3-bet and Villan caps, that makes me sure he's got aces up and I call with my 3 queen outs.

That makes the turn a little trickier, but I would check-call since I might have hidden outs if Villan has aces over sixes instead of aces over nines.

And, it makes the river easier to bet/3-bet.

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
I kind of like this actually. Depending on his level of LAG its probably a river 3 bet. He is much more likely to have an ace or aces up then a set.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm very surprised that the board LAG likes not getting in more bets here. Given the reads, IMO Hero is going to be ahead on all streets a large amount of the time. I can see a minor case for calling the flop/donkbetting the turn to keep the LP in the hand, but there's a good chance he's staying anyways.

I'm putting in a 3-bet somewhere, in decreasing order of preference of flop, river, turn.

[DrunkHamster]

Yeah, thinking about it (and not looking at the results, honest!) I wish I had raised the river, simply because with top 2 I am now ahead of most of the hands he raises the flop with - A9,A6 for example. He would definitely have raised with AA or 99, so I am only really scared of 66 ( no way could he have T8 how he played it), so I think this is a clear raise for value. Thanks for all the replies!