Nasty AJo hand, after posting in CO

[TripleH68]

Your hand could easily be dominated. If the board were not monotone, this would be an easy call, call, call.

The board being monotone makes QQ,JJ,TT,99 with a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] all hands that you would like to charge a little.
But I still don't think this is a good idea.

The fact that you posted adds a little twist, but villain is still not going to fold a hand that beats you.
(unless maybe if a spade hits on the turn). Call, call, call.

[Felipe]

So you are saying raise the flop, then if he 3 bets fold the turn UI?

I am of this school. And raise preflop "IF" you can get it heads up. (and or knock out others)

[DrunkHamster]

Alright, I'm going to have a go at doing the numbers for this. The fact its a 3 flush makes it harder by far, but nevertheless I'll try.

OK, first off, lets look at raising the flop. There are already 6 SB in the pot. Lets assume we are behind. We raise, then call down a 3 bet, losing us 7SB. If we are ahead, and we raise, we can hopefully assume villain will call the raise, then fold the turn or river. We gain, say on average 4 more SB off of him, making this +10SB. So, we have to look at the combinations of hands he has. AA,KK,AK,AQ we lose to. QQ,JJ,TT,99,KQ,KJ we beat (for a fairly loose raiser this sounds about right.) So there are 1 combination of AA, 3 of KK, 6 of AK, 12 of AQ = 21 we lose to. 6 of QQ, 1 of JJ, 6 of TT, 6 of 99, 12 of KQ, 8 of KJ =39 we win. So, on average, we make (39*10 - 21*7)/60 = 4.05 SB
Remember, this is assuming a relatively high raising range AND assuming villain calls the turn when he is beat.

OK, so now lets assume we just call down the whole way. The pot is 6SB at the flop. If he is ahead, we lose 5 SB. If he is behind, we win 11SB (this is assuming a bet gets put in at the river, which would happen if villain checks behind). So, using the same combinations, the EV is (39*11 - 21*5)/60= 5.4 SB, making this more profitable, even allowing for the times villain has a spade, and another falls (lets say he has one on average a third the time, and another will come around a third, so we lose 1/9 of 5.4, making our average EV 4.8 SB, still better.)

Now this may be completely wrong, but I'd really appreciate some of you critiquing it. If anything, I've screwed up the combinations.

[xenthebrain]

Well, are you suprised he bets into you on the flop after he raised preflop. Many people bet any flop after they raised pf.

I'd call down and raise if a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] falls. I would bet if he checks to me.

[imported_CaseClosed326]

I am doing the no response reading deal.

I would call, and raise a non spade turn. If the turn is a non spade that does not improve our hand I would fold to a threebet.

[DrunkHamster]

Grr the annoying thing about grunching is that now noone is going to read my long bloody post [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[KeysrSoze]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's do a number crunch. I've never seen how to formally do one either. If someone could show a good one, that would be really cool.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, running it through pokerstove, assuming he has a fair range of raising hands for EP (AA-TT, AKs-ATs, KQs, AKo-AQo, KQo?), we're only 37.33% preflop, but almost dead even after the flop (50.698% to our 49.302%)