Play a Foxwoods hand with me

[Sam T.]

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Ok, I decided to check and see the action, with the intention of calling a bet. UTG bet 1k and folded to you. I decided to call and BB folded. Now heads up to the turn, pot is about 3.4k and UTG started the hand with about 10k.

Turn card is K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Now, what is the plan?

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Ok, I checked again the turn, and he bet only 1k, so I decided to call the 1k with my pair and nut flush draw. Now the pot is about 5.4k.

The river card was 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I checked and he bet 3k, do you call?

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By my math there's t5400 in the pot prior to his bet. When the 8 hits, I'm inclined to bet out. If he hasn't got a set, he's going to have a hard time raising, so I think you can lay down if he does. Put out t2000-2500 and see what he says.

The problem with calling here is that I have a hard time putting him on a hand that you beat - with the king out there I think there is a good chance you are looking at a split pot. This, of course, complicates the pot odds (t3000 to win either t8400 or t4400), and I think leans more towards a fold.

That said, given the board your hand is pretty good, and he may just be trying to muscle the pot.

I don't know. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[A_PLUS]

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Ok, I decided to check and see the action, with the intention of calling a bet. UTG bet 1k and folded to you. I decided to call and BB folded. Now heads up to the turn, pot is about 3.4k and UTG started the hand with about 10k.

Turn card is K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Now, what is the plan?

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He isnt folding a better hand here. I dont hate free cards nearly as much anymore. I am check-calling (maybe fold to an extra-large bet)

[A_PLUS]

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Ok, I decided to check and see the action, with the intention of calling a bet. UTG bet 1k and folded to you. I decided to call and BB folded. Now heads up to the turn, pot is about 3.4k and UTG started the hand with about 10k.

Turn card is K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Now, what is the plan?

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Ok, I checked again the turn, and he bet only 1k, so I decided to call the 1k with my pair and nut flush draw. Now the pot is about 5.4k.

The river card was 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I checked and he bet 3k, do you call?

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100% of the time, unless he gives off his 'accidentally showing AK' tell.

I love seeing the 8 here. Two hands I was worried about just got worse. Other than a T or a diamond, this is the best card in the deck for our hand

[Lloyd]

Well that sure does complicate things a bit. Now we chop against AQ and AJ (and the unlikely Ace holdings we were ahead of). It also makes it less likely that he has 88. I think KK is unlikely the way the hand was played (limping UTG and leading out on an Ace high board versus quite a few players). I think his most likely holdings are AQ-AJ, 99, A9s, AA. All we can really hope for is a split pot here. I think getting just over 2 to 1 odds makes this a very marginally correct call. I'm going back and forth on just leading out or checking and hoping to see a cheap showdown. The problem with checking is that if you had a big hand it's unlikely you'd check-call the entire hand - you'd raise somewhere. So obviously you have a weak Ace or a missed draw. By checking you can almost expect a bet, even if he only has AQ/AJ.

So I think I like betting the river. There's a chance, albeit not a big one, that you can get top pair to lay it down. At the very least you know that if you're raised you're behind and can fold. I'm thinking 1500-2000.

[locutus2002]

Hero folds.

The turn bet of 1K is strange because its unlikely for hero to fold. I think in general you are either behind a little or a lot. I think its unlikely that villain has a drawing hand and is setting up a bluff on the river given that hero has the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and villain has not made an attempt to drive hero out of the pot.

Given the original 50 hands I estimated (88,99,89,ak,aq,aj,a8,a9, aa) there are only 37 hands left after taking into account the turn/river (including hero's holdings).
I can see villain betting the entire range.
Hero only splits the pot with aq,aj (12 hands or ~1/3).
So hero needs 6:1 in the pot to call;
I'd call up to T1200 or so.

[A_PLUS]

You dont think JT bets that flop ever? T7?

[locutus2002]

If by you mean villain can get here with a draw.
yes, but I think its more likely he has a hand.

because:
of the ~60 draws only 76 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] has a flush draw since hero has the T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
It's dangerous to bet the draw without a flush, and the table appears pretty passive/tight.
Because of the not so great draw I interpret the turn bet as a psychological slowdown, or a pot building bet, rather than setting up a mugging on the river.
Villain's standard bet here is 1K, for him to get brave and bet 3K, I think the top of his range is more likely than the bottom.

[EverettKings]

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The river card was 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I checked and he bet 3k, do you call?

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hell no.

if i was gonna call that, ida beat him to it and bet it myself.

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What exactly are you folding to here? I'd call expecting to chop or take the pot off a bluff. And I see no value in a bet even if I think I'm ahead: no hands worse than a chop call, and if he's bluffing he can either fold (costs you value) or raise you off the best hand (costs you a lot more). If the river were the 7s then I'd agree with you more.

A river check/call seems very necessary here.

Everett

[durrrr]

Lead flop, Since you didnt do that fold, since you didnt do that, chk/call turn, once he bets such a weird amount raise him to ~4k, since you didnt do that... call turn... once you do that, probably call river... What has he done in the past that makes you think he plays weird? (specific example?)

[jon_1van]

Responding w/o reading other post

I bet out a respectable amount...probably 900-1000.

Why?
-I may be winning
-I want fewwer players to the turn to clean up my J/T/7 as outs.
-I'm not super worried about a raise with so many people in the hand it will take guts to make the raise with a hand that you have beat. In which case, folding to a big raise is probably the correct play. Also if the raise is callable you could pick up a bunch of outs on the turn.

If I get raised,call, and pick up a "good card" 7/T/J and d. I bet out on the turn.

If I get raised,call, and brick I check/fold.