An interesting AQ hand

ggbman · #1 10-18-2005, 10:56 AM

The turn raiser is The72Tiger, a very solid winner in the 30 game.

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP2 raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, SB calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls.

Flop: (10 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, SB calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, SB calls, MP2 raises, Hero calls, SB calls.

River: (12.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls, SB calls.

Final Pot: 15.50 BB

So, thoughts on my play here?

arod15 · #2 10-18-2005, 10:58 AM

Looks good. The turn raise smells like a flush but there is enough there for you to call the raise and a river bet....

johnnycakes · #3 10-18-2005, 11:19 AM

The only hands I can think he's raising the turn with are AK, KsQs, 55. Maybe JsTs.

I think calling is right. It keeps in the overcaller.
3-betting the turn would probably drive out the overcaller and allow the72tiger to induce pain.

MattiasL · #4 10-18-2005, 11:51 AM

I think I like it

What is his range for the preflop raise in MP2?

If he has the flush he should not have the Q, which limits the number of hands he can have (KJ, JT, KT? How often does he raise this? Lower suited connectors?)

I think you are easily ahead often enough to call the river. I would probably rank AK as his most probable holding after his river bet. (After the SB call, I am not so sure since this would seem to imply all the aces being out)

Did I totally misread this?

goofball · #5 10-18-2005, 11:52 AM

As others said, 3betting the turn or raising the river sucks a lot. If you call SB is goign to overcall a decent percent of the time. You're getting those bets without risking losing any more money to a flush. If you raise either street you're getting nothing from SB almost 100% of the time.

DeeJ · #6 10-18-2005, 11:58 AM

could be 55 / 44 / AK / KQ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] / AQ / AJ / AT

I play it the same, there's no point driving out SB and you're unlikely to improve but might still be ahead.

MattiasL · #7 10-18-2005, 11:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The only hands I can think he's raising the turn with are AK, KsQs, 55. Maybe JsTs.

I think calling is right. It keeps in the overcaller.
3-betting the turn would probably drive out the overcaller and allow the72tiger to induce pain.

[/ QUOTE ]
You really think he can have KsQs? Surely he would build the pot on the flop? And slowplaying a set in that position on a two-suited flop also looks strange.

Not saying any of those possibilities are out, but I think they should be discounted when reading the hand.

DcifrThs · #8 10-18-2005, 12:09 PM

if i were tiger here i would have KsJs/ JsTs virtually 100% of the time. (and i may still have c'red the flop)

there is no reason NOT to build a pot on the flop w/ a pair +flush draw or set given the flush draw on board which may slow the action down later.

after tiger checkraises you AND the sb on the turn in my mind he has the flush almostever time here. there's just nothing else that plays so passively on the flop and c'rs the flushed turn. Even IF he had Ah5h here the turn c'r is risky on many levels b/c even your non flush hands that beat him aren't folding (sets/2pr which would clearly be better than his 2pr) on turn or river.

given the pot on the turn though you 100% must call.

the river is so close its sick. i have folded rivers like this before w/ a bad player behind me, but only when im 99% sure. i just feel from tiger's play here that he cannot have any other hand but a change up (98ss/87ss etc.) flush or JTss/KJss.

the problem is though, that on the river the bad player makes up some of the equity lost to tiger AND the pot is big enough that a call is inviting.

either way though, its close and this is a river decision that, in expectation, doesn't matter. if you need to sleep at night and will play better if you win or rather play worse if he bets something like AKs (which he would have capped pf btw) then go ahead and call...this will save you the loss of bets on future poorly played hands and thus is worth more than the cost of the very slightly incorrect call.

however, if you are in 100% control of your game at this point, optimal play here imo is fold the river.

oh, one more point...IF tiger is capable of recognizing your ability to fold on the turn and his checkraise is designed to get you to fold AK/AJ/AT when he holds just a Q then a fold is clearly catastrophic. HOWEVER, this is almost nil probability b/c of the specific turn card. that A is just as likely to help you as it is to hurt you and i dont think he'd go for that play here.

Barron

ggbman · #9 10-18-2005, 01:45 PM

So everyone seems to think calling down is the right play, with *maybe* the exception of Barron who see's merit to a river fold. The thing i was was trying to figure it was, if i was Tiger, given that action, what is the worst hand you value bet on the river? I don't know him well enough to say, but what is the worst hand you guys would value bet on the river?

MattiasL · #10 10-18-2005, 02:04 PM

I have changed my mind.

[ QUOTE ]
...if he bets something like AKs (which he would have capped pf btw)...

[/ QUOTE ]
You are right, of course. Not sure how I managed not to take that into consideration.

The non-AK remaining hands we beat are single-spade hands bluffing the river. Doesn't seem very probable.

I still could not lay this down, but I agree it is close.