KJ on bubble. Is this a push?

fluorescenthippo · #1 07-14-2005, 02:52 AM

I ran it in SnGPT and its pretty close. So ill post it here.

party 50+5

Hero (1280) in CO with KJo
Button (5870)
SB (2370)
BB (480)

stacks are before posting

blinds 100/200

EricW · #2 07-14-2005, 02:58 AM

How many hands until the blinds go up? I'm not nearly as good as the amazing posters are on here, and I'm still learning lots about FE and EV but I have a good idea how to play. If it's in mid round or early round, I think I fold. You have an extremely short stack and the button coming up. If you get called, you're done.

Love to hear what the experts have to say.

fluorescenthippo · #3 07-14-2005, 03:04 AM

at least another orbit before they go up

SammyKid11 · #4 07-14-2005, 03:06 AM

Well, I'm certainly no expert (I'm brand new) -- but I think I'm pushing here. Haven't gotten my reg. key for SnG PT yet, and I don't know the math well enough to know for sure what the best play is (nor do I have reads as to what opponents might call your push with). But I'd certainly be inclined to push here.

fluorescenthippo · #5 07-14-2005, 03:23 AM

BB should be calling with any two. if he doesnt, this is a clear push. big stacks are probably around 77+, A9+, maybe even less for the biggest stack because hes a donk.

curtains · #6 07-14-2005, 03:24 AM

I fold here.

fluorescenthippo · #7 07-14-2005, 03:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]

I fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

awesome, thanks. i pushed here but then i started thinking that it was probably a mistake

tigerite · #8 07-14-2005, 06:02 AM

Tough spot but I fold - only just though.

HesseJam · #9 07-14-2005, 06:21 AM

OK, you have a good chance folding the Button and the SB since you are taking care of the short stack. If they move in, I guess you are in trouble because they will have better hands.

The short stack will likely call you with a very wide range of hands, so you should be the favorite to win HU with him. So, you are 60/40 favorite against him. Overall, considering that the other two migh call with a good hand you are maybe 55/45?.

Not too bad, but Button or CO could also take him out. I'd say that there is a good chance (between 25 to 45%, depending on their playing style) that one of the two will eliminate him.

tigerite · #10 07-14-2005, 06:23 AM

I'm not too sure about a "good chance of folding the button" as he has 5800 chips. SB is a bit more debateable, a call from him and he'll have 1100 left if he loses, with the BB now on 200 odd (he'd fold for sure), so he doesn't really have much to lose either. In these situations I think both button and SB would call with a far looser range of hands than is really good for me with KJo.